Alanyaspor at Genclerbirligi
FT
0–5
At lock: projected ALA 1.06–1.39 GEN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 12:04 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 698267792
- Winner: Genclerbirli (44%)
- Spread: ALA +0.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)5
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
ALA 1.06–1.39 GEN · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): GEN att -0.22 / def -0.11 · ALA att -0.25 / def -0.03 · model GEN 1.4–1.1 ALA
- Home field+0.3 goals to GEN
- RecordGEN 3-2-5 · ALA 3-3-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward ALA +165 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALA | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| GEN | 1 | 4 | 5 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 1'
Ogulcan Ülgün (Genclerbirligi) Goal at 1'
- GOAL2H 59'
Franco Tongya (Genclerbirligi) Goal at 59'
- GOAL2H 66'
Tiago Gouveia (Genclerbirligi) Goal at 66'
- GOAL2H 68'
Pedro Mendes (Genclerbirligi) Goal at 68'
- GOAL2H 78'
Tiago Gouveia (Genclerbirligi) Goal at 78'
Game leaders
- Bedirhan Özyurttotalshots 2
- Bedirhan ÖzyurtPass 64
- Bedirhan Özyurtdefensiveinterventions 6
- Paulo VictorSV 2
- Tiago Gouveiatotalshots 5
- Thalisson KelvenPass 31
- Metehan Baltacidefensiveinterventions 8
- Irfan Can EgribayatSV 3
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ALA | GEN | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 10 | 15 |
| Yellow Cards | 3 | 1 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks | 1 | 3 |
| Saves | 2 | 3 |
| Possession | 58.8 | 41.2 |
| SHOTS | 9 | 12 |
| ON GOAL | 3 | 7 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 366 | 240 |
| Passes | 454 | 316 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Cross % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Long Balls % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Blocked Shots | 1 | 2 |
| Effective Tackles | 8 | 7 |
| Tackles | 10 | 9 |
| Tackle % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Effective Clearances | 0 | 0 |
| Clearances | 16 | 20 |
At lock ALA 1.06–1.39 GEN · 0.05 goals under 2.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissB. Özyurt · ALA
DefenderPaulo Victor · ALA
GoalkeeperT. Gouveia · GEN
ForwardThalisson Kelven · GEN
DefenderM. Baltaci · GEN
DefenderI. Egribayat · GEN
Goalkeeper
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Alanyaspor vs Genclerbirli pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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