Serie ASat 1:45 PM CTStadio Diego Armando Maradona

Torino at Napoli

TV · Paramount+

TorinoNapoli

Sat 1:45 PM CT

Lean · TotalNot a strong play

Over 2.5

-150 at lock56%

Model projects TOR 0.88 – 1.97 NAP · below the strong-play bar (edge -4.5%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

C. Adams · TOR
Forward
K. De Bruyne · NAP
Midfielder

Projected prop · Kevin De Bruyne (NAP) 0.44 goals · 0.36 goals/game this season, × 1.20 for the projected NAP score

Line not posted yet

Torino

4-2-5

Form DLLWW · 15 PF · 17 PA

0.88

Projected

Napoli

4-3-4

Form DLLWD · 18 PF · 14 PA

1.97

TOR 16%Draw 21%NAP 63%

At lock: projected TOR 0.88–1.97 NAP · most likely 0–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 1–2

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

NAP win

73%

81% (no-vig)

Total

2.86

2.5

Gap: -7 pts of win %, +0.36 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1949 vs old model 0.2019 vs closing line 0.1898. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

TOR 0.88–1.97 NAP · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): NAP att +0.12 / def +0.20 · TOR att -0.17 / def -0.18 · model NAP 2.0–0.9 TOR
Home field
+0.3 goals to NAP
Record
NAP 4-3-4 · TOR 4-2-5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Ché Adams
goals 4
Ché Adams
goalsleaders 4

Kevin De Bruyne
goals 4
Kevin De Bruyne
goalsleaders 4

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TOR	NAP
Goal Difference	-2	4
Total Goals	15	18
Assists	10	12
Goals Against	17	14

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Torino vs Napoli prediction · Nov 21, 2026

The model projects Torino 0.9, Napoli 2.0. Model win probability: Napoli 63%, Torino 16%, draw 21%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Serie A picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day