Cagliari at Como
TV · Paramount+
@Model projects CAG 0.83 – 1.98 COMO · below the strong-play bar (edge -3.2%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
D. Maldini · CAG
ForwardT. Douvikas · COMO
Forward
Projected prop · Tasos Douvikas (COMO) 0.55 goals · 0.45 goals/game this season, × 1.20 for the projected COMO score
At lock: projected CAG 0.83–1.98 COMO · most likely 0–1
Model vs market
Gap: -11 pts of win %, -0.69 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1949 vs old model 0.2019 vs closing line 0.1898. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
CAG 0.83–1.98 COMO · Low confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): COMO att +0.17 / def +0.21 · CAG att -0.23 / def -0.14 · model COMO 2.0–0.8 CAG
- Home field+0.3 goals to COMO
- RecordCOMO 7-2-2 · CAG 5-1-5
Season leaders
- Daniel Maldinigoals 5
- Daniel Maldinigoalsleaders 5
Tasos Douvikasgoals 5- Tasos Douvikasgoalsleaders 5
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CAG | COMO | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | -5 | 8 |
| Total Goals | 10 | 18 |
| Assists | 7 | 14 |
| Goals Against | 15 | 10 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Cagliari vs Como prediction · Nov 21, 2026
The model projects Cagliari 0.8, Como 2.0. Model win probability: Como 64%, Cagliari 15%, draw 21%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Serie A picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day