Serie AFinalStadio Artemio Franchi

Juventus at Fiorentina

FT · Paramount+

2–2

JuventusFiorentina

Final

Juventus

5-3-3

Form DWWLW · 15 PF · 12 PA

Final

Fiorentina

2-3-6

Form DWDLL · 17 PF · 25 PA

JUV 50%Draw 25%FIO 25%

At lock: projected JUV 1.59–1.05 FIO

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3434087833

Missed · off by 2

Most typical sim

JUV 1 – FIO 1

Final

JUV 2 – FIO 2

Winner: Juventus (42%)
Spread: FIO +0.5 covers (58%)
Total: Under 2.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)2

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

JUV 1.59–1.05 FIO · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): FIO att -0.02 / def -0.16 · JUV att +0.13 / def +0.23 · model FIO 1.1–1.7 JUV
Home field
+0.3 goals to FIO
Record
FIO 2-3-6 · JUV 5-3-3
Market prior
Blended 66% toward JUV +120 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
JUV	1	1	2
FIO	1	1	2

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 4'
Goal! Fiorentina 1, Juventus 0. Mateo Pellegrino (Fiorentina) header from very close range to the top right corner. Assisted by Pote with a cross following a corner.
GOAL1H 32'
Goal! Fiorentina 1, Juventus 1. Nick Woltemade (Juventus) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Randal Kolo Muani following a fast break.
GOAL2H 54'
Goal! Fiorentina 2, Juventus 1. Alieu Njie (Fiorentina) right footed shot from very close range to the bottom left corner following a set piece situation.
GOAL2H 66'
Goal! Fiorentina 2, Juventus 2. Bremer (Juventus) with an attempt from very close range to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Douglas Luiz with a cross following a corner.

Game leaders

Douglas Luiz
totalshots 3
Bremer
Pass 63
Pierre Kalulu
defensiveinterventions 10
Guglielmo Vicario
SV 4

Franco Mastantuono
totalshots 6
Radu Dragusin
Pass 35
Franco Mastantuono
defensiveinterventions 8
David de Gea
SV 4

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	JUV	FIO
Fouls	18	16
Yellow Cards	3	1
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	1	0
Corner Kicks	12	5
Saves	4	4
Possession	58.7	41.3
SHOTS	18	22
ON GOAL	6	6
On Target %	0.3	0.3
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	386	273
Passes	455	323
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.8
Accurate Crosses	7	5
Crosses	27	15
Cross %	0.3	0.3
Long Balls	42	33
Accurate Long Balls	17	17
Long Balls %	0.4	0.5
Blocked Shots	6	7
Effective Tackles	5	13
Tackles	16	20
Tackle %	0.3	0.7
Interceptions	5	6
Effective Clearances	16	26
Clearances	16	26

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

52%

At lock JUV 1.59–1.05 FIO · 0.1 goals over 2.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop D. Luiz · JUV
D. Luiz Over 1.5 shots
Bremer · JUV
Defender
P. Kalulu · JUV
Defender
G. Vicario · JUV
Goalkeeper
F. Mastantuono · FIO
Forward
R. Dragusin · FIO
Defender

Data-Driven Pick · D. Luiz Over 1.5 shots

-110Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Juventus vs Fiorentina pick result · Nov 8, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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