Venezia at Como
FT · Paramount+
0–1
At lock: projected VEN 0.93–2.44 COMO
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3417310214
- Winner: Como (70%)
- Spread: VEN +1.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
VEN 0.93–2.44 COMO · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): COMO att +0.17 / def +0.21 · VEN att -0.29 / def -0.21 · model COMO 2.1–0.8 VEN
- Home field+0.3 goals to COMO
- RecordCOMO 7-2-1 · VEN 1-0-9
- Market priorBlended 66% toward COMO -380 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VEN | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| COMO | 1 | 0 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 43'
Goal! Como 1, Venezia 0. Lucas da Cunha (Como) converts the penalty with a left footed shot to the top left corner.
Game leaders
- John Yeboahtotalshots 2
- Juan JesusPass 43
- Matías Morenodefensiveinterventions 16
- Filip StankovicSV 3
- Martin Baturinatotalshots 4
- Luis MillaPass 95
- Jacobo Ramóndefensiveinterventions 10
- Jean ButezSV 1
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| VEN | COMO | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 9 | 5 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 1 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks | 1 | 8 |
| Saves | 3 | 1 |
| Possession | 34.3 | 65.7 |
| SHOTS | 7 | 19 |
| ON GOAL | 1 | 4 |
| On Target % | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 1 |
| Accurate Passes | 310 | 656 |
| Passes | 375 | 719 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Accurate Crosses | 1 | 5 |
| Crosses | 8 | 19 |
| Cross % | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Long Balls | 52 | 43 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 29 | 26 |
| Long Balls % | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Blocked Shots | 3 | 8 |
| Effective Tackles | 12 | 11 |
| Tackles | 19 | 15 |
| Tackle % | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 9 |
| Effective Clearances | 23 | 15 |
| Clearances | 23 | 15 |
At lock VEN 0.93–2.44 COMO · 0.1 goals under 3.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp A. Douvikas · COMO
A. Douvikas Over 4.5 shotsJ. Yeboah · VEN
ForwardJ. Jesus · VEN
DefenderM. Moreno · VEN
DefenderF. Stankovic · VEN
GoalkeeperM. Baturina · COMO
Midfielder
Data-Driven Pick · A. Douvikas Over 4.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Venezia vs Como pick result · Nov 1, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Serie A picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day