Serie AFinalOlimpico

Cagliari at Lazio

FT · Paramount+

1–2

CagliariLazio

Final

Cagliari

4-1-5

Form WLLLL · 10 PF · 15 PA

Final

Lazio

9-1-0

Form DWWWW · 25 PF · 9 PA

CAG 12%Draw 21%LAZ 67%

At lock: projected CAG 0.66–1.93 LAZ

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1469759651

Exact score

Most typical sim

CAG 1 – LAZ 2

Final

CAG 1 – LAZ 2

Winner: Lazio (67%)
Spread: CAG +1.5 covers (58%)
Total: Under 2.5 (52%)
Score error (both teams)0

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

CAG 0.66–1.93 LAZ · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): LAZ att +0.06 / def +0.07 · CAG att -0.23 / def -0.14 · model LAZ 1.8–1.0 CAG
Home field
+0.3 goals to LAZ
Record
LAZ 9-1-0 · CAG 4-1-5
Market prior
Blended 66% toward LAZ -215 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
CAG	1	0	1
LAZ	1	1	2

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 20'
Goal! Lazio 0, Cagliari 1. M'Bala Nzola (Cagliari) left footed shot from very close range to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Alieu Fadera following a fast break.
GOAL1H 36'
Goal! Lazio 1, Cagliari 1. Gustav Isaksen (Lazio) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Tijjani Noslin.
GOAL2H 83'
Goal! Lazio 2, Cagliari 1. Andrea Pinamonti (Lazio) header from very close range to the high centre of the goal. Assisted by Alfonso Pedraza.

Game leaders

Yael Trepy
totalshots 2
Juan Rodríguez
Pass 26
Juan Rodríguez
defensiveinterventions 14
Elia Caprile
SV 2

Gustav Isaksen
totalshots 3
Josip Sutalo
Pass 105
Josip Sutalo
defensiveinterventions 8
Christos Mandas
SV 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CAG	LAZ
Fouls	18	7
Yellow Cards	2	1
Red Cards	1	0
Offsides	2	3
Corner Kicks	2	2
Saves	2	2
Possession	26.3	73.7
SHOTS	9	11
ON GOAL	3	4
On Target %	0.3	0.4
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	195	658
Passes	263	746
Pass Completion %	0.7	0.9
Accurate Crosses	2	5
Crosses	8	18
Cross %	0.3	0.3
Long Balls	57	38
Accurate Long Balls	26	18
Long Balls %	0.5	0.5
Blocked Shots	2	0
Effective Tackles	13	15
Tackles	20	18
Tackle %	0.7	0.8
Interceptions	18	8
Effective Clearances	22	7
Clearances	22	7

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

53%

At lock CAG 0.66–1.93 LAZ · 0.1 goals over 2.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop D. Frattesi · LAZ
D. Frattesi Over 2.5 shots
Y. Trepy · CAG
Forward
J. Rodríguez · CAG
Defender
E. Caprile · CAG
Goalkeeper
G. Isaksen · LAZ
Forward
J. Sutalo · LAZ
Defender

Data-Driven Pick · D. Frattesi Over 2.5 shots

-110Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Cagliari vs Lazio pick result · Nov 1, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Serie A picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day