Serie ATue 12:30 PM CTMapei Stadium

Lazio at Sassuolo

TV · Paramount+

Tue 12:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

51%

At lock LAZ 1.55–1.08 SAS · 0.1 goals over 2.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

D. Frattesi · LAZ
Midfielder
V. Adzic · SAS
Midfielder

Lazio

7-1-0

Form DWWWD · 16 PF · 5 PA

1.55

Projected

Sassuolo

2-2-4

Form DLDLW · 12 PF · 16 PA

1.08

LAZ 47%Draw 28%SAS 25%

At lock: projected LAZ 1.55–1.08 SAS · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 2–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

SAS win

41%

40% (no-vig)

Total

2.88

2.5

Gap: +1 pts of win %, +0.38 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1949 vs old model 0.2019 vs closing line 0.1898. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

LAZ 1.55–1.08 SAS · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): SAS att -0.08 / def -0.26 · LAZ att -0.00 / def +0.07 · model SAS 1.2–1.6 LAZ
Home field
+0.3 goals to SAS
Record
SAS 2-2-4 · LAZ 7-1-0
Market prior
Blended 66% toward LAZ +110 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Davide Frattesi
goals 3
Davide Frattesi
goalsleaders 3

Vasilije Adzic
goals 3
Vasilije Adzic
goalsleaders 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	LAZ	SAS
Goal Difference	11	-4
Total Goals	16	12
Assists	12	6
Goals Against	5	16

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

A. Pinamonti anytime goal
Anytime goal · LAZ
+195
34%
S. Esposito anytime goal
Anytime goal · SAS
+215
32%
M. Cancellieri anytime goal
Anytime goal · LAZ
+240
29%
K. Bowie anytime goal
Anytime goal · SAS
+250
29%
G. Isaksen anytime goal
Anytime goal · LAZ
+260
28%
M. Zaccagni anytime goal
Anytime goal · LAZ
+275
27%
D. Berardi anytime goal
Anytime goal · SAS
+280
26%
D. Frattesi anytime goal
Anytime goal · LAZ
+370
21%
K. Taylor anytime goal
Anytime goal · LAZ
+400
20%
C. Volpato anytime goal
Anytime goal · SAS
+400
20%
V. Adzic anytime goal
Anytime goal · SAS
+400
20%
D. Cataldi anytime goal
Anytime goal · LAZ
+475
17%

Lazio vs Sassuolo prediction · Oct 27, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Lazio 1.6, Sassuolo 1.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Sassuolo 25%, Lazio 47%, draw 28%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Serie A picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day