Bologna at Parma
FT · Paramount+
2–1
At lock: projected BOL 1.41–0.97 PAR
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1856086173
- Winner: Bologna (47%)
- Spread: PAR +0.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (58%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
BOL 1.41–0.97 PAR · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): PAR att -0.36 / def -0.09 · BOL att -0.02 / def +0.03 · model PAR 1.0–1.4 BOL
- Home field+0.3 goals to PAR
- RecordPAR 2-2-7 · BOL 5-2-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward BOL -150 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BOL | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| PAR | 0 | 1 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 53'
Goal! Parma 0, Bologna 1. Arthur Theate (Bologna) header from very close range to the high centre of the goal. Assisted by Nicolò Cambiaghi with a cross following a fast break.
- GOAL2H 72'
Goal! Parma 0, Bologna 2. Riccardo Orsolini (Bologna) converts the penalty with a left footed shot to the bottom right corner.
- GOAL2H 81'
Goal! Parma 1, Bologna 2. Vincent Sierro (Parma) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the bottom left corner.
Game leaders
Federico Bernardeschitotalshots 9- Lewis FergusonPass 89
- Lewis Fergusondefensiveinterventions 6
- Lukasz SkorupskiSV 1
- Simone Lontanitotalshots 3
- Enrico Del PratoPass 28
- Mariano Troilodefensiveinterventions 17
- Giovanni DaffaraSV 8
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| BOL | PAR | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 13 | 11 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 3 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 1 |
| Offsides | 1 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks | 15 | 1 |
| Saves | 1 | 8 |
| Possession | 68.5 | 31.5 |
| SHOTS | 33 | 11 |
| ON GOAL | 10 | 2 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 1 | 1 |
| Accurate Passes | 431 | 157 |
| Passes | 475 | 219 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Accurate Crosses | 18 | 6 |
| Crosses | 42 | 15 |
| Cross % | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Long Balls | 28 | 48 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 16 | 14 |
| Long Balls % | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Blocked Shots | 10 | 3 |
| Effective Tackles | 4 | 9 |
| Tackles | 9 | 18 |
| Tackle % | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Interceptions | 5 | 6 |
| Effective Clearances | 18 | 48 |
| Clearances | 18 | 48 |
At lock BOL 1.41–0.97 PAR · 0.1 goals under 2.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp F. Bernardeschi · BOL
F. Bernardeschi Over 3.5 shotsL. Ferguson · BOL
MidfielderL. Skorupski · BOL
GoalkeeperS. Lontani · PAR
ForwardE. Del Prato · PAR
DefenderM. Troilo · PAR
Defender
Data-Driven Pick · F. Bernardeschi Over 3.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Bologna vs Parma pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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