Serie AFinalVia Del Mare

Genoa at Lecce

FT · Paramount+

2–1

GenoaLecce

Final

Genoa

4-1-5

Form LWWWL · 11 PF · 16 PA

Final

Lecce

3-0-7

Form DLLLW · 12 PF · 22 PA

GEN 46%Draw 27%LEC 27%

At lock: projected GEN 1.37–0.99 LEC

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1553941936

Called it

Most typical sim

GEN 1 – LEC 1

Final

GEN 2 – LEC 1

Winner: Genoa (46%)
Spread: LEC +0.5 covers (54%)
Total: Under 2.5 (58%)
Score error (both teams)1

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

GEN 1.37–0.99 LEC · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): LEC att -0.48 / def -0.17 · GEN att -0.23 / def -0.07 · model LEC 1.0–1.2 GEN
Home field
+0.3 goals to LEC
Record
LEC 3-0-7 · GEN 4-1-5
Market prior
Blended 66% toward GEN +130 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
GEN	2	0	2
LEC	1	0	1

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 11'
Goal! Lecce 0, Genoa 1. Milutin Osmajic (Genoa) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Junior Messias.
GOAL1H 28'
Goal! Lecce 0, Genoa 2. Junior Messias (Genoa) left footed shot from the left side of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Stephan El Shaarawy.
GOAL1H 40'
Goal! Lecce 1, Genoa 2. Youssef Maleh (Lecce) from a free kick with a left footed shot to the bottom left corner.

Game leaders

Stephan El Shaarawy
totalshots 3
Hamed Traoré
Pass 48
Johan Vásquez
defensiveinterventions 20
Justin Bijlow
SV 6

Nikola Stulic
totalshots 4
Oumar Ngom
Pass 47
Jamil Siebert
defensiveinterventions 20
Wladimiro Falcone
SV 1

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	GEN	LEC
Fouls	9	19
Yellow Cards	1	2
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	3	1
Corner Kicks	3	6
Saves	6	1
Possession	47.1	52.9
SHOTS	13	18
ON GOAL	3	7
On Target %	0.2	0.4
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	273	307
Passes	367	396
Pass Completion %	0.7	0.8
Accurate Crosses	3	4
Crosses	10	22
Cross %	0.3	0.2
Long Balls	69	45
Accurate Long Balls	18	18
Long Balls %	0.3	0.4
Blocked Shots	5	5
Effective Tackles	18	15
Tackles	28	19
Tackle %	0.6	0.8
Interceptions	19	8
Effective Clearances	29	25
Clearances	29	25

Computer pick · Total

Under 2.5

60%

At lock GEN 1.37–0.99 LEC · 0.1 goals under 2.5 · 60% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop W. Falcone · LEC
W. Falcone Over 2.5 saves
S. El Shaarawy · GEN
Forward
H. Traoré · GEN
Midfielder
J. Vásquez · GEN
Defender
J. Bijlow · GEN
Goalkeeper
N. Stulic · LEC
Forward

Data-Driven Pick · W. Falcone Over 2.5 saves

-120Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Genoa vs Lecce pick result · Nov 1, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 60% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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