AS Roma at Parma
TV · Paramount+
@Model projects ROMA 1.94 – 0.86 PAR · below the strong-play bar (edge -6.1%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
D. Malen · ROMA
ForwardS. Lontani · PAR
Forward
Projected prop · Donyell Malen (ROMA) 0.58 goals · 0.73 goals/game this season, × 0.80 for the projected ROMA score
At lock: projected ROMA 1.94–0.86 PAR · most likely 1–0
Model vs market
Gap: +14 pts of win %, -0.70 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1949 vs old model 0.2019 vs closing line 0.1898. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
ROMA 1.94–0.86 PAR · Low confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): PAR att -0.36 / def -0.09 · ROMA att +0.32 / def +0.17 · model PAR 0.9–1.9 ROMA
- Home field+0.3 goals to PAR
- RecordPAR 2-2-7 · ROMA 8-3-0
Season leaders
Donyell Malengoals 8- Donyell Malengoalsleaders 8
- Simone Lontanigoals 3
- Simone Lontanigoalsleaders 3
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ROMA | PAR | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | 21 | -8 |
| Total Goals | 31 | 9 |
| Assists | 21 | 6 |
| Goals Against | 10 | 17 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
AS Roma vs Parma prediction · Nov 21, 2026
The model projects AS Roma 1.9, Parma 0.9. Model win probability: Parma 16%, AS Roma 62%, draw 21%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Serie A picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day