Fiorentina at Sassuolo
FT · Paramount+
4–2
At lock: projected FIO 1.88–1.52 SAS
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 1, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1738495745
- Winner: Fiorentina (47%)
- Spread: SAS +0.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
FIO 1.88–1.52 SAS · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): SAS att -0.10 / def -0.36 · FIO att -0.02 / def -0.16 · model SAS 1.5–1.8 FIO
- Home field+0.3 goals to SAS
- RecordSAS 2-2-6 · FIO 2-2-6
- Market priorBlended 66% toward FIO +120 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FIO | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| SAS | 1 | 1 | 2 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 25'
Goal! Sassuolo 1, Fiorentina 0. Armand Laurienté (Sassuolo) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Sebastiano Esposito with a through ball following a fast break.
- GOAL1H 45'+2'
Goal! Sassuolo 1, Fiorentina 1. Mateo Pellegrino (Fiorentina) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Alieu Njie.
- GOAL2H 50'
Goal! Sassuolo 1, Fiorentina 2. Alieu Njie (Fiorentina) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Marco Brescianini.
- GOAL2H 65'
Goal! Sassuolo 2, Fiorentina 2. Armand Laurienté (Sassuolo) right footed shot from a difficult angle on the left to the top right corner. Assisted by Nemanja Matic.Goal confirmed following VAR Review.
- GOAL2H 79'
Goal! Sassuolo 2, Fiorentina 3. Franco Mastantuono (Fiorentina) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Pote.
- GOAL2H 90'+3'
Goal! Sassuolo 2, Fiorentina 4. Valde (Fiorentina) left footed shot from very close range to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Cher Ndour following a fast break.
Game leaders
- Franco Mastantuonototalshots 5
- VieryPass 62
- Radu Dragusindefensiveinterventions 9
- Armand Laurientétotalshots 3
- Nemanja MaticPass 93
- Fali Candédefensiveinterventions 10
- Stefano TuratiSV 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| FIO | SAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 15 | 12 |
| Yellow Cards | 3 | 2 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks | 3 | 5 |
| Saves | 0 | 2 |
| Possession | 41.8 | 58.2 |
| SHOTS | 15 | 7 |
| ON GOAL | 6 | 2 |
| On Target % | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 331 | 496 |
| Passes | 403 | 563 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Accurate Crosses | 2 | 1 |
| Crosses | 6 | 14 |
| Cross % | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Long Balls | 30 | 48 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 12 | 26 |
| Long Balls % | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 3 | 4 |
| Effective Tackles | 9 | 10 |
| Tackles | 19 | 18 |
| Tackle % | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 13 |
| Effective Clearances | 12 | 13 |
| Clearances | 12 | 13 |
At lock FIO 1.88–1.52 SAS · 0.1 goals under 3.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp F. Mastantuono · FIO
F. Mastantuono Over 3.5 shotsViery · FIO
DefenderR. Dragusin · FIO
DefenderA. Laurienté · SAS
ForwardN. Matic · SAS
MidfielderF. Candé · SAS
Defender
Data-Driven Pick · F. Mastantuono Over 3.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Fiorentina vs Sassuolo pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 59% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Serie A picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day