Internazionale at Bologna
FT · Paramount+
Model: INT 1.69–1.02 BOL
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 11:03 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3618030358
- Winner: Bologna (43%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
INT 1.69–1.02 BOL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): BOL att -0.09 / def +0.02 · INT att +0.53 / def +0.20 · model BOL 1.1–2.1 INT
- Home field+0.3 goals to BOL
- RecordBOL 1-2-5 · INT 7-1-0
- Market priorBlended 67% toward INT -190 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| INT | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| BOL | 1 | 0 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 10'
Goal! Bologna 1, Inter Milan 0. Tommaso Pobega (Bologna) left footed shot from the left side of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Juan Miranda.
- GOAL1H 44'
Goal! Bologna 1, Inter Milan 1. Marcus Thuram (Inter Milan) header from the centre of the box to the top left corner. Assisted by Nicolò Barella with a cross.
- GOAL2H 69'
Goal! Bologna 1, Inter Milan 2. Carlos Augusto (Inter Milan) left footed shot from very close range to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Piotr Zielinski.
- GOAL2H 83'
Goal! Bologna 1, Inter Milan 3. Ange-Yoan Bonny (Inter Milan) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Carlos Augusto.
Game leaders
- Petar Sucictotalshots 3
- Yann BisseckPass 83
- Manuel Akanjidefensiveinterventions 11
- Josep MartínezSV 3
- Tommaso Pobegatotalshots 3
- Lewis FergusonPass 59
- Matteo Darmiandefensiveinterventions 10
- Lukasz SkorupskiSV 5
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| INT | BOL | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 11 | 8 |
| Yellow Cards | 3 | 4 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 3 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks | 7 | 2 |
| Saves | 3 | 5 |
| Possession | 64.8 | 35.2 |
| SHOTS | 17 | 11 |
| ON GOAL | 8 | 4 |
| On Target % | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 624 | 301 |
| Passes | 684 | 366 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 3 | 3 |
| Crosses | 14 | 10 |
| Cross % | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Long Balls | 44 | 57 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 34 | 23 |
| Long Balls % | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Blocked Shots | 4 | 2 |
| Effective Tackles | 5 | 9 |
| Tackles | 11 | 12 |
| Tackle % | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 13 |
| Effective Clearances | 15 | 16 |
| Clearances | 15 | 16 |
INT 1.69–1.02 BOL
MissPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Inter Milan vs Bologna pick result · Oct 17, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 50% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Serie A picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day