Napoli at Juventus
FT · Paramount+
0–2
At lock: projected NAP 1.05–1.44 JUV
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3919880405
- Winner: Juventus (46%)
- Spread: NAP +0.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
NAP 1.05–1.44 JUV · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): JUV att +0.13 / def +0.23 · NAP att +0.12 / def +0.20 · model JUV 1.4–1.2 NAP
- Home field+0.3 goals to JUV
- RecordJUV 5-2-3 · NAP 4-2-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward JUV +115 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAP | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| JUV | 0 | 2 | 2 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 70'
Goal! Juventus 1, Napoli 0. Kerim Alajbegovic (Juventus) left footed shot from outside the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Edon Zhegrova.
- GOAL2H 87'
Goal! Juventus 2, Napoli 0. Jérémie Boga (Juventus) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Andrea Cambiaso.
Game leaders
- Lorenzo Luccatotalshots 3
- Rafa MarínPass 62
- Luca Marianuccidefensiveinterventions 13
- Alex MeretSV 2
- Kerim Alajbegovictotalshots 4
- Douglas LuizPass 62
- Bremerdefensiveinterventions 10
- Guglielmo VicarioSV 1
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NAP | JUV | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 12 | 9 |
| Yellow Cards | 1 | 3 |
| Red Cards | 1 | 0 |
| Offsides | 1 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks | 4 | 13 |
| Saves | 2 | 1 |
| Possession | 51.3 | 48.7 |
| SHOTS | 8 | 18 |
| ON GOAL | 1 | 4 |
| On Target % | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 420 | 372 |
| Passes | 483 | 442 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 5 | 11 |
| Crosses | 14 | 29 |
| Cross % | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Long Balls | 51 | 37 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 24 | 15 |
| Long Balls % | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Blocked Shots | 2 | 7 |
| Effective Tackles | 2 | 6 |
| Tackles | 8 | 12 |
| Tackle % | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Interceptions | 5 | 9 |
| Effective Clearances | 34 | 21 |
| Clearances | 34 | 21 |
At lock NAP 1.05–1.44 JUV · 0.01 goals under 2.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp E. Zhegrova · JUV
E. Zhegrova Over 3.5 shotsL. Lucca · NAP
ForwardR. Marín · NAP
DefenderL. Marianucci · NAP
DefenderA. Meret · NAP
GoalkeeperK. Alajbegovic · JUV
Forward
Data-Driven Pick · E. Zhegrova Over 3.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Napoli vs Juventus pick result · Nov 1, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Serie A picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day