Serie AFinalStadio Pier Luigi Penzo

Udinese at Venezia

FT · CBSSN

1–2

UdineseVenezia

Final

Udinese

1-2-8

Form LLDLL · 12 PF · 25 PA

Final

Venezia

2-0-9

Form WLLLW · 8 PF · 21 PA

UDI 40%Draw 26%VEN 35%

At lock: projected UDI 1.41–1.30 VEN

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 1:18 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3321079007

Missed · off by 1

Most typical sim

UDI 1 – VEN 1

Final

UDI 1 – VEN 2

Winner: Udinese (40%)
Spread: UDI +0.5 covers (66%)
Total: Over 2.5 (50%)
Score error (both teams)1

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

UDI 1.41–1.30 VEN · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): VEN att -0.29 / def -0.21 · UDI att -0.16 / def -0.20 · model VEN 1.3–1.4 UDI
Home field
+0.3 goals to VEN
Record
VEN 2-0-9 · UDI 1-2-8
Market prior
Blended 66% toward VEN +140 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
UDI	0	1	1
VEN	0	2	2

How the goals went in

GOAL2H 53'
Goal! Venezia 1, Udinese 0. Toma Basic (Venezia) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Antoine Hainaut with a cross.
OWN GOAL2H 57'
Own Goal by Matías Moreno, Venezia. Venezia 1, Udinese 1.Goal confirmed following VAR Review.
GOAL2H 65'
Goal! Venezia 2, Udinese 1. Kike Pérez (Venezia) left footed shot from outside the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Pasquale Mazzocchi.

Game leaders

Keinan Davis
totalshots 4
Oumar Solet
Pass 59
Matteo Palma
defensiveinterventions 13
Maduka Okoye
SV 2

Antoine Hainaut
totalshots 4
Matías Moreno
Pass 50
Antoine Hainaut
defensiveinterventions 17
Filip Stankovic
SV 5

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	UDI	VEN
Fouls	6	11
Yellow Cards	1	1
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	3	4
Corner Kicks	7	3
Saves	2	5
Possession	53.7	46.3
SHOTS	13	15
ON GOAL	5	4
On Target %	0.4	0.3
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	395	345
Passes	466	409
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.8
Accurate Crosses	4	5
Crosses	26	15
Cross %	0.2	0.3
Long Balls	56	51
Accurate Long Balls	26	21
Long Balls %	0.5	0.4
Blocked Shots	4	5
Effective Tackles	5	10
Tackles	10	16
Tackle %	0.5	0.6
Interceptions	4	3
Effective Clearances	21	44
Clearances	21	44

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

55%

At lock UDI 1.41–1.30 VEN · 0.2 goals over 2.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop K. Davis · UDI
K. Davis Over 2.5 shots
O. Solet · UDI
Defender
M. Palma · UDI
Defender
M. Okoye · UDI
Goalkeeper
A. Hainaut · VEN
Defender
M. Moreno · VEN
Defender

Data-Driven Pick · K. Davis Over 2.5 shots

-120Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Udinese vs Venezia pick result · Nov 6, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 55% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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