Lecce at Torino
FT · Paramount+
1–1
At lock: projected LEC 0.99–1.50 TOR
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3253968531
- Winner: Torino (49%)
- Spread: LEC +0.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)0
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
LEC 0.99–1.50 TOR · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): TOR att -0.17 / def -0.18 · LEC att -0.48 / def -0.17 · model TOR 1.5–0.9 LEC
- Home field+0.3 goals to TOR
- RecordTOR 4-2-5 · LEC 3-1-7
- Market priorBlended 66% toward TOR -140 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LEC | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| TOR | 0 | 1 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- OWN GOAL2H 60'
Own Goal by Kialonda Gaspar, Lecce. Torino 1, Lecce 0.
- OWN GOAL2H 73'
Own Goal by Daniel Bragança, Torino. Torino 1, Lecce 1.
Game leaders
- Mohamed Kabatotalshots 2
- Tiago GabrielPass 42
- Kialonda Gaspardefensiveinterventions 17
- Wladimiro FalconeSV 2
- Giovanni Simeonetotalshots 3
- Pietro ComuzzoPass 95
- Adrian Ismajlidefensiveinterventions 20
- Lucas PerriSV 1
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| LEC | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 16 | 11 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 0 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks | 5 | 4 |
| Saves | 2 | 1 |
| Possession | 35.9 | 64.1 |
| SHOTS | 6 | 9 |
| ON GOAL | 1 | 2 |
| On Target % | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 272 | 555 |
| Passes | 360 | 648 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Accurate Crosses | 1 | 5 |
| Crosses | 12 | 19 |
| Cross % | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Long Balls | 45 | 56 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 8 | 20 |
| Long Balls % | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Blocked Shots | 1 | 2 |
| Effective Tackles | 12 | 13 |
| Tackles | 17 | 18 |
| Tackle % | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 14 |
| Effective Clearances | 42 | 27 |
| Clearances | 42 | 27 |
At lock LEC 0.99–1.50 TOR · 0.01 goals under 2.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp G. Simeone · TOR
G. Simeone Over 3.5 shotsM. Kaba · LEC
ForwardTiago Gabriel · LEC
DefenderK. Gaspar · LEC
DefenderW. Falcone · LEC
GoalkeeperP. Comuzzo · TOR
Defender
Data-Driven Pick · G. Simeone Over 3.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Lecce vs Torino pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 50% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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