Lazio at Napoli
FT · Paramount+
1–1
At lock: projected LAZ 1.20–1.62 NAP
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3237190912
- Winner: Napoli (48%)
- Spread: LAZ +0.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 2.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
LAZ 1.20–1.62 NAP · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): NAP att +0.12 / def +0.20 · LAZ att +0.06 / def +0.07 · model NAP 1.5–1.1 LAZ
- Home field+0.3 goals to NAP
- RecordNAP 4-3-4 · LAZ 9-2-0
- Market priorBlended 66% toward NAP +105 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAZ | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| NAP | 0 | 1 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 28'
Goal! Napoli 0, Lazio 1. Davide Frattesi (Lazio) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Tijjani Noslin following a fast break.
- OWN GOAL2H 48'
Own Goal by Alfonso Pedraza, Lazio. Napoli 1, Lazio 1.
Game leaders
- Gustav Isaksentotalshots 4
- Reda BelahyanePass 71
- Oliver Provstgaarddefensiveinterventions 13
- Christos MandasSV 6
- Scott McTominaytotalshots 3
- Rafa MarínPass 58
- Amir Rrahmanidefensiveinterventions 14
- Vanja Milinkovic-SavicSV 5
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| LAZ | NAP | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 11 | 12 |
| Yellow Cards | 1 | 3 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks | 6 | 6 |
| Saves | 6 | 5 |
| Possession | 51 | 49 |
| SHOTS | 15 | 15 |
| ON GOAL | 6 | 6 |
| On Target % | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 422 | 388 |
| Passes | 486 | 459 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 2 | 4 |
| Crosses | 12 | 21 |
| Cross % | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Long Balls | 40 | 48 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 17 | 24 |
| Long Balls % | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 4 | 4 |
| Effective Tackles | 4 | 12 |
| Tackles | 8 | 21 |
| Tackle % | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 7 |
| Effective Clearances | 43 | 23 |
| Clearances | 43 | 23 |
At lock LAZ 1.20–1.62 NAP · 0.3 goals over 2.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp N. Lang · NAP
N. Lang Over 2.5 shotsG. Isaksen · LAZ
ForwardR. Belahyane · LAZ
MidfielderO. Provstgaard · LAZ
DefenderC. Mandas · LAZ
GoalkeeperS. McTominay · NAP
Midfielder
Data-Driven Pick · N. Lang Over 2.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Lazio vs Napoli pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 57% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Serie A picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day