Serie AFinalOlimpico

Sassuolo at AS Roma

FT · Paramount+

0–3

SassuoloAS Roma

Final

Sassuolo

2-2-7

Form LLLLL · 16 PF · 29 PA

Final

AS Roma

8-3-0

Form WLWWD · 31 PF · 10 PA

SAS 13%Draw 16%ROMA 71%

At lock: projected SAS 1.00–2.62 ROMA

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1140238800

Called it

Most typical sim

SAS 1 – ROMA 3

Final

SAS 0 – ROMA 3

Winner: AS Roma (72%)
Spread: SAS +1.5 covers (50%)
Total: Under 3.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)1

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

SAS 1.00–2.62 ROMA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ROMA att +0.32 / def +0.17 · SAS att -0.10 / def -0.36 · model ROMA 2.9–1.0 SAS
Home field
+0.3 goals to ROMA
Record
ROMA 8-3-0 · SAS 2-2-7
Market prior
Blended 66% toward ROMA -360 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
SAS	0	0	0
ROMA	2	1	3

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 27'
Goal! Roma 1, Sassuolo 0. Mario Hermoso (Roma) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the top left corner.
OWN GOAL1H 30'
Own Goal by Sebastian Walukiewicz, Sassuolo. Roma 2, Sassuolo 0.
GOAL2H 58'
Goal! Roma 3, Sassuolo 0. Rodrigo Mora (Roma) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Donyell Malen.

Game leaders

Jay Idzes
totalshots 2
Duje Caleta-Car
Pass 45
Jay Idzes
defensiveinterventions 19
Arijanet Muric
SV 5

Donyell Malen
totalshots 6
Bryan Cristante
Pass 86
Wesley
defensiveinterventions 8
Devis Vásquez
SV 1

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SAS	ROMA
Fouls	13	8
Yellow Cards	0	0
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	1	1
Corner Kicks	1	12
Saves	5	1
Possession	34.9	65.1
SHOTS	6	28
ON GOAL	1	9
On Target %	0.2	0.3
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	322	644
Passes	386	714
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.9
Accurate Crosses	1	7
Crosses	3	19
Cross %	0.3	0.4
Long Balls	41	31
Accurate Long Balls	17	16
Long Balls %	0.4	0.5
Blocked Shots	1	9
Effective Tackles	16	12
Tackles	26	18
Tackle %	0.6	0.7
Interceptions	5	7
Effective Clearances	29	11
Clearances	29	11

Computer pick · Total

Over 3.5

50%

At lock SAS 1.00–2.62 ROMA · 0.1 goals over 3.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop D. Malen · ROMA
D. Malen Over 5.5 shots
J. Idzes · SAS
Defender
D. Caleta-Car · SAS
Defender
A. Muric · SAS
Goalkeeper
B. Cristante · ROMA
Midfielder
Wesley · ROMA
Defender

Data-Driven Pick · D. Malen Over 5.5 shots

+105Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Sassuolo vs AS Roma pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 3.5, with a 50% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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