Torino at Frosinone
FT · Paramount+
0–2
At lock: projected TOR 1.48–1.89 FRO
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3772964794
- Winner: Frosinone (47%)
- Spread: TOR +0.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
TOR 1.48–1.89 FRO · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): FRO att +0.03 / def -0.24 · TOR att -0.17 / def -0.18 · model FRO 1.8–1.4 TOR
- Home field+0.3 goals to FRO
- RecordFRO 6-2-2 · TOR 4-1-5
- Market priorBlended 66% toward FRO +105 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| FRO | 0 | 2 | 2 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 48'
Goal! Frosinone 1, Torino 0. Farès Ghedjemis (Frosinone) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Giorgi Kvernadze following a corner.
- GOAL2H 90'+3'
Goal! Frosinone 2, Torino 0. Giacomo Calò (Frosinone) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Wisdom Amey following a fast break.
Game leaders
Zakaria Aboukhlaltotalshots 3- Saúl CocoPass 38
- Saúl Cocodefensiveinterventions 17
- Lucas PerriSV 4
- Farès Ghedjemistotalshots 5
- Giacomo CaloPass 42
- Gabriele Calvanidefensiveinterventions 19
- Lorenzo PalmisaniSV 3
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| TOR | FRO | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 13 | 14 |
| Yellow Cards | 3 | 1 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 3 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks | 7 | 7 |
| Saves | 4 | 3 |
| Possession | 54.4 | 45.6 |
| SHOTS | 12 | 20 |
| ON GOAL | 3 | 8 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 266 | 206 |
| Passes | 362 | 304 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Accurate Crosses | 3 | 4 |
| Crosses | 20 | 20 |
| Cross % | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Long Balls | 60 | 64 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 22 | 17 |
| Long Balls % | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Blocked Shots | 4 | 2 |
| Effective Tackles | 6 | 10 |
| Tackles | 17 | 24 |
| Tackle % | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 10 |
| Effective Clearances | 38 | 41 |
| Clearances | 38 | 41 |
At lock TOR 1.48–1.89 FRO · 0.1 goals under 3.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp R. Schmid · FRO
R. Schmid Over 2.5 shotsZ. Aboukhlal · TOR
ForwardS. Coco · TOR
DefenderL. Perri · TOR
GoalkeeperF. Ghedjemis · FRO
ForwardG. Calo · FRO
Midfielder
Data-Driven Pick · R. Schmid Over 2.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Torino vs Frosinone pick result · Nov 1, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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