Cagliari at AS Roma
TV · Paramount+
At lock CAG 0.80–2.09 ROMA · 0.4 goals over 2.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
D. Maldini · CAG
ForwardD. Malen · ROMA
Forward
At lock: projected CAG 0.80–2.09 ROMA · most likely 0–2 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 0–3
Model vs market
Gap: -10 pts of win %, +0.39 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1949 vs old model 0.2019 vs closing line 0.1898. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
CAG 0.80–2.09 ROMA · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ROMA att +0.25 / def +0.20 · CAG att -0.25 / def -0.12 · model ROMA 2.1–0.8 CAG
- Home field+0.3 goals to ROMA
- RecordROMA 5-3-0 · CAG 4-1-3
- Market priorBlended 66% toward ROMA -310 / total 2.5
Season leaders
- Daniel Maldinigoals 4
- Daniel Maldinigoalsleaders 4
Donyell Malengoals 6- Donyell Malengoalsleaders 6
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CAG | ROMA | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | -3 | 13 |
| Total Goals | 6 | 19 |
| Assists | 4 | 12 |
| Goals Against | 9 | 6 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
- S. Castro anytime goalAnytime goal · ROMA+12544%
- P. Dybala anytime goalAnytime goal · ROMA+16038%
- R. Mora anytime goalAnytime goal · ROMA+32024%
- B. Cristante anytime goalAnytime goal · ROMA+45018%
- D. Maldini anytime goalAnytime goal · CAG+45018%
- M. Nzola anytime goalAnytime goal · CAG+50017%
- P. Mendy anytime goalAnytime goal · CAG+50017%
- K. Koulierakis anytime goalAnytime goal · ROMA+60014%
- N. Molina anytime goalAnytime goal · ROMA+70013%
- G. Mancini anytime goalAnytime goal · ROMA+70013%
- J. Fazzini anytime goalAnytime goal · CAG+70013%
- M. de Roon anytime goalAnytime goal · ROMA+90010%
Cagliari vs AS Roma prediction · Oct 27, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Cagliari 0.8, AS Roma 2.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: AS Roma 70%, Cagliari 9%, draw 21%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Serie A picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day