Napoli at Venezia
FT · Paramount+
Model: NAP 1.59–0.95 VEN
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 11:03 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3807505770
- Winner: Venezia (43%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
NAP 1.59–0.95 VEN · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): VEN att -0.27 / def -0.27 · NAP att +0.09 / def +0.24 · model VEN 0.9–1.8 NAP
- Home field+0.3 goals to VEN
- RecordVEN 2-6 · NAP 3-1-4
- Market priorBlended 67% toward NAP -130 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAP | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| VEN | 0 | 1 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 49'
Goal! Venezia 1, Napoli 0. Akor Adams (Venezia) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Simon Sohm following a fast break.
Game leaders
- Scott McTominaytotalshots 6
- Amir RrahmaniPass 95
- Amir Rrahmanidefensiveinterventions 12
- Alex MeretSV 3
- Akor Adamstotalshots 6
- Juan JesusPass 37
- Juan Jesusdefensiveinterventions 17
- Filip StankovicSV 9
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NAP | VEN | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 6 | 7 |
| Yellow Cards | 0 | 2 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 5 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks | 12 | 0 |
| Saves | 3 | 9 |
| Possession | 70.7 | 29.3 |
| SHOTS | 29 | 9 |
| ON GOAL | 10 | 4 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 1 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 657 | 232 |
| Passes | 733 | 310 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Accurate Crosses | 7 | 1 |
| Crosses | 31 | 5 |
| Cross % | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Long Balls | 45 | 62 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 27 | 21 |
| Long Balls % | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Blocked Shots | 12 | 0 |
| Effective Tackles | 5 | 8 |
| Tackles | 11 | 12 |
| Tackle % | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Interceptions | 4 | 10 |
| Effective Clearances | 20 | 51 |
| Clearances | 20 | 51 |
NAP 1.59–0.95 VEN
HitPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Napoli vs Venezia pick result · Oct 17, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 55% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Serie A picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day