Celtic at Falkirk
FT
0–2
At lock: projected CEL 2.40–1.03 FALK
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:14 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 471443507
- Winner: Celtic (67%)
- Spread: FALK +1.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)3
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
CEL 2.40–1.03 FALK · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): FALK att -0.06 / def -0.03 · CEL att +0.26 / def +0.32 · model FALK 1.2–1.8 CEL
- Home field+0.3 goals to FALK
- RecordFALK 5-3-4 · CEL 9-1-2
- Market priorBlended 79% toward CEL -220 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CEL | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| FALK | 2 | 0 | 2 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 3'
Ethan Ross (Falkirk) Goal at 3'
- GOAL1H 38'
Scott Tanser (Falkirk) Goal at 38'
Game leaders
- Camilo Durántotalshots 4
- Liam ScalesPass 93
- Cameron Carter-Vickersdefensiveinterventions 12
- Ethan Rosstotalshots 2
- Brad SpencerPass 24
- Lewis Neilsondefensiveinterventions 9
- Scott BainSV 9
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CEL | FALK | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 11 | 19 |
| Yellow Cards | 3 | 1 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks | 14 | 0 |
| Saves | 0 | 9 |
| Possession | 70.2 | 29.8 |
| SHOTS | 24 | 6 |
| ON GOAL | 9 | 2 |
| On Target % | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 514 | 168 |
| Passes | 598 | 262 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Cross % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Long Balls % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Blocked Shots | 6 | 1 |
| Effective Tackles | 6 | 6 |
| Tackles | 12 | 11 |
| Tackle % | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Effective Clearances | 0 | 0 |
| Clearances | 25 | 54 |
At lock CEL 2.40–1.03 FALK · 0.1 goals under 3.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp C. Osmand anytime goal · CEL
C. Osmand anytime goalC. Durán · CEL
ForwardL. Scales · CEL
DefenderC. Carter-Vickers · CEL
DefenderE. Ross · FALK
GoalkeeperB. Spencer · FALK
Midfielder
Data-Driven Pick · C. Osmand anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Celtic vs Falkirk pick result · Nov 1, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 56% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Scotland picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day