Hibernian at Aberdeen
FT
4–0
At lock: projected HIBS 1.28–1.18 ABE
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 11:50 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 655997316
- Winner: Hibernian (39%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)4
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
HIBS 1.28–1.18 ABE · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ABE att -0.38 / def -0.12 · HIBS att -0.09 / def +0.10 · model ABE 1.1–1.4 HIBS
- Home field+0.3 goals to ABE
- RecordABE 3-2-7 · HIBS 3-2-7
- Market priorBlended 65% toward ABE +160 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HIBS | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| ABE | 0 | 0 | 0 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 57'
Jamie McGrath (Hibernian) Goal at 57'
- GOAL2H 79'
Callum Wright (Hibernian) Goal at 79'
- GOAL2H 87'
Nicky Cadden (Hibernian) Goal at 87'
- GOAL2H 90'+3'
Thibault Klidje (Hibernian) Goal at 90'+3'
Game leaders
- Jamie McGrathtotalshots 5
- Marko IvezicPass 48
- Marko Ivezicdefensiveinterventions 7
- Raphael SallingerSV 2
- Kevin Nisbettotalshots 4
- Brad LyonsPass 30
- Daniel Happedefensiveinterventions 9
- Marius MüllerSV 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| HIBS | ABE | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 13 | 17 |
| Yellow Cards | 1 | 1 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 1 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks | 6 | 8 |
| Saves | 2 | 2 |
| Possession | 57.8 | 42.2 |
| SHOTS | 21 | 15 |
| ON GOAL | 6 | 2 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 374 | 241 |
| Passes | 467 | 325 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Cross % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Long Balls % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Blocked Shots | 10 | 7 |
| Effective Tackles | 5 | 9 |
| Tackles | 9 | 11 |
| Tackle % | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Effective Clearances | 0 | 0 |
| Clearances | 33 | 28 |
At lock HIBS 1.28–1.18 ABE · 0.04 goals under 2.5 · 48% is the confidence saved at lock
MissJ. McGrath · HIBS
MidfielderM. Ivezic · HIBS
DefenderR. Sallinger · HIBS
GoalkeeperK. Nisbet · ABE
ForwardB. Lyons · ABE
MidfielderD. Happe · ABE
Defender
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Hibernian vs Aberdeen pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 48% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Scotland picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day