ScotlandFinalCeltic Park

Kilmarnock at Celtic

0–1

KilmarnockCeltic

Final

Kilmarnock

2-3-8

Form DDLLW · 13 PF · 29 PA

Final

Celtic

10-1-2

Form DWLDW · 28 PF · 10 PA

KIL 10%Draw 13%CEL 77%

At lock: projected KIL 0.88–2.92 CEL

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 8, 12:08 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 639219697

Called it

Most typical sim

KIL 1 – CEL 3

Final

KIL 0 – CEL 1

Winner: Celtic (79%)
Spread: KIL +2.5 covers (61%)
Total: Over 3.5 (53%)
Score error (both teams)3

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

KIL 0.88–2.92 CEL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): CEL att +0.26 / def +0.32 · KIL att -0.27 / def -0.31 · model CEL 3.1–0.8 KIL
Home field
+0.3 goals to CEL
Record
CEL 10-1-2 · KIL 2-3-8
Market prior
Blended 65% toward CEL -900 / total 4.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
KIL	0	0	0
CEL	1	0	1

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 26'
Liam Scales (Celtic) Goal at 26'

Game leaders

Tom Lowery
totalshots 2
Aaron Tshibola
Pass 55
George Stanger
defensiveinterventions 7
Nico Mantl
SV 4

Kasper Høgh
totalshots 4
Cameron Carter-Vickers
Pass 81
Cameron Carter-Vickers
defensiveinterventions 6
Sam Johnstone
SV 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	KIL	CEL
Fouls	12	7
Yellow Cards	5	1
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	0	2
Corner Kicks	3	8
Saves	4	3
Possession	41.1	58.9
SHOTS	7	20
ON GOAL	3	5
On Target %	0.4	0.3
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	306	471
Passes	375	535
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.9
Cross %	0.0	0.0
Long Balls %	0.0	0.0
Blocked Shots	3	4
Effective Tackles	9	6
Tackles	17	10
Tackle %	0.5	0.6
Effective Clearances	0	0
Clearances	29	25

Computer pick · Total

Over 3.5

56%

At lock KIL 0.88–2.92 CEL · 0.3 goals over 3.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop L. McCowan anytime goal · CEL
L. McCowan anytime goal
T. Lowery · KIL
Midfielder
A. Tshibola · KIL
Midfielder
G. Stanger · KIL
Defender
N. Mantl · KIL
Goalkeeper
K. Høgh · CEL
Forward

Data-Driven Pick · L. McCowan anytime goal

+185Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Kilmarnock vs Celtic pick result · Nov 8, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 3.5, with a 56% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Scotland picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day