ScotlandFinalMcDiarmid Park

Dundee at St Johnstone

1–2

DundeeSt Johnstone

Final

Dundee

5-2-5

Form LWLDW · 18 PF · 15 PA

Final

St Johnstone

4-5-4

Form WDDLD · 17 PF · 20 PA

DUN 42%Draw 26%STJ 32%

At lock: projected DUN 1.47–1.24 STJ

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 9:50 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 605664459

Missed · off by 1

Most typical sim

DUN 1 – STJ 1

Final

DUN 1 – STJ 2

Winner: Dundee (38%)
Total: Under 2.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)1

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

DUN 1.47–1.24 STJ · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): STJ att -0.44 / def -0.16 · DUN att -0.19 / def -0.16 · model STJ 1.3–1.3 DUN
Home field
+0.3 goals to STJ
Record
STJ 4-5-4 · DUN 5-2-5
Market prior
Blended 65% toward DUN +155 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
DUN	0	1	1
STJ	1	1	2

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 5'
Josh Campbell (St Johnstone) Goal at 5'
GOAL2H 47'
Joe Westley (Dundee) Goal at 47'
GOAL2H 72'
Kai Fotheringham (St Johnstone) Goal at 72'

Game leaders

Ethan Hamilton
totalshots 3
Ryan Astley
Pass 65
Owen Bevan
defensiveinterventions 7
Owen Goodman
SV 2

Josh Campbell
totalshots 4
Jason Holt
Pass 84
Cheick Diabate
defensiveinterventions 7
Ross Sinclair
SV 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	DUN	STJ
Fouls	13	12
Yellow Cards	3	1
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	0	3
Corner Kicks	5	4
Saves	2	2
Possession	43.4	56.6
SHOTS	8	17
ON GOAL	3	4
On Target %	0.4	0.2
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	365	511
Passes	439	580
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.9
Cross %	0.0	0.0
Long Balls %	0.0	0.0
Blocked Shots	2	6
Effective Tackles	8	5
Tackles	14	10
Tackle %	0.6	0.5
Effective Clearances	0	0
Clearances	24	25

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

55%

At lock DUN 1.47–1.24 STJ · 0.2 goals over 2.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

E. Hamilton · DUN
Midfielder
R. Astley · DUN
Defender
O. Bevan · DUN
Defender
O. Goodman · DUN
Goalkeeper
J. Campbell · STJ
Midfielder
J. Holt · STJ
Midfielder

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Dundee vs St Johnstone pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 55% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Scotland picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day