Rangers at St Mirren
FT
2–0
At lock: projected RAN 2.04–0.90 STM
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 2:32 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 588886840
- Winner: Rangers (64%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (67%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
RAN 2.04–0.90 STM · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): STM att -0.50 / def -0.11 · RAN att +0.27 / def +0.22 · model STM 0.9–2.0 RAN
- Home field+0.3 goals to STM
- RecordSTM 4-2-7 · RAN 8-3-1
- Market priorBlended 65% toward RAN -310 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RAN | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| STM | 0 | 0 | 0 |
How the goals went in
- RUN1H 18'
Ryan Naderi (Rangers) Penalty - Scored at 18'
- GOAL2H 61'
Daniel Neil (Rangers) Goal at 61'
Game leaders
- Kevin Kelsytotalshots 4
- Nicolas RaskinPass 49
- Emmanuel Fernandezdefensiveinterventions 9
Ivor PandurSV 4
- Jake Youngtotalshots 3
- Louis JacksonPass 53
- Alexander Gogicdefensiveinterventions 10
- Jacob ChapmanSV 5
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| RAN | STM | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 22 | 16 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 3 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks | 4 | 7 |
| Saves | 4 | 5 |
| Possession | 45.2 | 54.8 |
| SHOTS | 17 | 11 |
| ON GOAL | 7 | 4 |
| On Target % | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 307 | 368 |
| Passes | 395 | 474 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Cross % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Long Balls % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Blocked Shots | 3 | 2 |
| Effective Tackles | 5 | 15 |
| Tackles | 7 | 18 |
| Tackle % | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Effective Clearances | 0 | 0 |
| Clearances | 29 | 27 |
At lock RAN 2.04–0.90 STM · 0.6 goals under 3.5 · 60% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp D. Gassama anytime goal · RAN
D. Gassama anytime goalK. Kelsy · RAN
ForwardN. Raskin · RAN
MidfielderE. Fernandez · RAN
DefenderI. Pandur · RAN
GoalkeeperJ. Young · STM
Forward
Data-Driven Pick · D. Gassama anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Rangers vs St Mirren pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 60% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Scotland picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day