ScotlandFinalTynecastle Park

Falkirk at Heart of Midlothian

5–2

FalkirkHearts

Final

Falkirk

6-3-4

Form WWWWW · 20 PF · 14 PA

Final

Heart of Midlothian

6-2-4

Form LLLDW · 26 PF · 22 PA

FALK 28%Draw 25%HOM 47%

At lock: projected FALK 1.19–1.61 HOM

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 8, 12:08 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 606797292

Missed · off by 4

Most typical sim

FALK 1 – HOM 2

Final

FALK 5 – HOM 2

Winner: Hearts (47%)
Spread: FALK +0.5 covers (53%)
Total: Over 2.5 (54%)
Score error (both teams)4

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

FALK 1.19–1.61 HOM · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): HOM att +0.11 / def +0.09 · FALK att -0.06 / def -0.03 · model HOM 2.0–1.2 FALK
Home field
+0.3 goals to HOM
Record
HOM 6-2-4 · FALK 6-3-4
Market prior
Blended 65% toward HOM -165 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
FALK	4	1	5
HOM	0	2	2

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 4'
Finley Barbrook (Falkirk) Goal at 4'
GOAL1H 17'
Owen Eames (Falkirk) Goal at 17'
GOAL1H 33'
Jacob Murrell (Falkirk) Goal at 33'
GOAL1H 45'+2'
Liam Henderson (Falkirk) Goal at 45'+2'
GOAL2H 47'
Jacob Murrell (Falkirk) Goal at 47'
GOAL2H 50'
Severin Sabri Guendouz (Heart of Midlothian) Goal at 50'
RUN2H 75'
Cláudio Braga (Heart of Midlothian) Penalty - Scored at 75'

Game leaders

Jacob Murrell
totalshots 3
Liam Henderson
Pass 34
Finley Barbrook
defensiveinterventions 10
Scott Bain
SV 4

Cláudio Braga
totalshots 4
Stuart Findlay
Pass 41
Stuart Findlay
defensiveinterventions 8
Beau Reus
SV 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	FALK	HOM
Fouls	20	11
Yellow Cards	6	1
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	2	3
Corner Kicks	5	4
Saves	4	2
Possession	40.9	59.1
SHOTS	14	16
ON GOAL	7	6
On Target %	0.5	0.4
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	218	352
Passes	305	438
Pass Completion %	0.7	0.8
Cross %	0.0	0.0
Long Balls %	0.0	0.0
Blocked Shots	4	7
Effective Tackles	14	7
Tackles	23	10
Tackle %	0.6	0.7
Effective Clearances	0	0
Clearances	41	22

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

57%

At lock FALK 1.19–1.61 HOM · 0.3 goals over 2.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop J. Wilson anytime goal · HOM
J. Wilson anytime goal
J. Murrell · FALK
Forward
L. Henderson · FALK
Midfielder
F. Barbrook · FALK
Midfielder
S. Bain · FALK
Goalkeeper
C. Braga · HOM
Forward

Data-Driven Pick · J. Wilson anytime goal

+190Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Falkirk vs Hearts pick result · Nov 8, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 57% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Scotland picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day