ScotlandSat 9:00 AM CTCeltic Park

St Mirren at Celtic

St MirrenCeltic

Sat 9:00 AM CT

Lean · TotalNot a strong play

Under 3.5

+115 at lock45%

Model projects STM 0.60 – 2.54 CEL · below the strong-play bar (edge -1.2%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

K. Phillips · STM
Midfielder
C. Durán · CEL
Forward

Projected prop · Camilo Durán (CEL) 0.63 goals · 0.54 goals/game this season, × 1.18 for the projected CEL score

Line not posted yet

St Mirren

4-2-7

Form DLDWL · 12 PF · 22 PA

0.60

Projected

Celtic

10-1-2

Form DWLDW · 28 PF · 10 PA

2.54

STM 7%Draw 14%CEL 79%

At lock: projected STM 0.60–2.54 CEL · most likely 0–2

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

CEL win

86%

91% (no-vig)

Total

3.14

3.5

Gap: -5 pts of win %, -0.36 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 355 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2052 vs old model 0.2310. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

STM 0.60–2.54 CEL · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): CEL att +0.26 / def +0.32 · STM att -0.50 / def -0.11 · model CEL 2.5–0.6 STM
Home field
+0.3 goals to CEL
Record
CEL 10-1-2 · STM 4-2-7

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Killian Phillips
goals 3
Killian Phillips
goalsleaders 3

Camilo Durán
goals 7
Camilo Durán
goalsleaders 7

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	STM	CEL
Goal Difference	-10	18
Total Goals	12	28
Assists	9	20
Goals Against	22	10

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

St Mirren vs Celtic prediction · Nov 21, 2026

The model projects St Mirren 0.6, Celtic 2.5. Model win probability: Celtic 79%, St Mirren 7%, draw 14%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Scotland picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day