ScotlandSat 9:00 AM CTFalkirk Stadium

St Johnstone at Falkirk

St JohnstoneFalkirk

Sat 9:00 AM CT

Lean · TotalNot a strong play

Over 2.5

-145 at lock54%

Model projects STJ 0.91 – 1.94 FALK · below the strong-play bar (edge -5.0%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

J. Fowler · STJ
Forward
J. Murrell · FALK
Forward

Projected prop · Jacob Murrell (FALK) 0.65 goals · 0.54 goals/game this season, × 1.20 for the projected FALK score

Line not posted yet

St Johnstone

4-5-4

Form WDDLD · 17 PF · 20 PA

0.91

Projected

Falkirk

6-3-4

Form WWWWW · 20 PF · 14 PA

1.94

STJ 17%Draw 22%FALK 61%

At lock: projected STJ 0.91–1.94 FALK · most likely 0–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 1–2

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

FALK win

72%

67% (no-vig)

Total

2.85

2.5

Gap: +5 pts of win %, +0.35 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 355 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2052 vs old model 0.2310. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

STJ 0.91–1.94 FALK · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): FALK att -0.06 / def -0.03 · STJ att -0.44 / def -0.16 · model FALK 1.9–0.9 STJ
Home field
+0.3 goals to FALK
Record
FALK 6-3-4 · STJ 4-5-4

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Josh Fowler
goals 6
Josh Fowler
goalsleaders 6

Jacob Murrell
goals 7
Jacob Murrell
goalsleaders 7

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	STJ	FALK
Goal Difference	-3	6
Total Goals	17	20
Assists	9	11
Goals Against	20	14

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

St Johnstone vs Falkirk prediction · Nov 21, 2026

The model projects St Johnstone 0.9, Falkirk 1.9. Model win probability: Falkirk 61%, St Johnstone 17%, draw 22%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Scotland picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day