ScotlandSat 9:00 AM CTEaster Road

Dundee United at Hibernian

Dundee UtdHibernian

Sat 9:00 AM CT

Lean · TotalNot a strong play

Over 2.5

-180 at lock58%

Model projects DUN 0.97 – 1.76 HIBS · below the strong-play bar (edge -6.4%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

J. Randall · DUN
Forward
M. Boyle · HIBS
Forward

Projected prop · Martin Boyle (HIBS) 0.30 goals · 0.25 goals/game this season, × 1.20 for the projected HIBS score

Line not posted yet

Dundee United

4-5-3

Form DDWDW · 17 PF · 17 PA

0.97

Projected

Hibernian

3-2-7

Form WWDLL · 15 PF · 17 PA

1.76

DUN 21%Draw 23%HIBS 56%

At lock: projected DUN 0.97–1.76 HIBS · most likely 0–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 1–2

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

HIBS win

68%

66% (no-vig)

Total

2.72

2.5

Gap: +2 pts of win %, +0.22 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 355 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2052 vs old model 0.2310. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

DUN 0.97–1.76 HIBS · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): HIBS att -0.09 / def +0.10 · DUN att -0.25 / def -0.10 · model HIBS 1.8–1.0 DUN
Home field
+0.3 goals to HIBS
Record
HIBS 3-2-7 · DUN 4-5-3

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jesse Randall
goals 3
Jesse Randall
goalsleaders 3

Martin Boyle
goals 3
Martin Boyle
goalsleaders 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	DUN	HIBS
Goal Difference	0	-2
Total Goals	17	15
Assists	15	10
Goals Against	17	17

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Dundee Utd vs Hibernian prediction · Nov 21, 2026

The model projects Dundee Utd 1.0, Hibernian 1.8. Model win probability: Hibernian 56%, Dundee Utd 21%, draw 23%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Scotland picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day