ScotlandSat 9:00 AM CTThe BBSP Stadium

Aberdeen at Kilmarnock

AberdeenKilmarnock

Sat 9:00 AM CT

Lean · TotalNot a strong play

Over 2.5

-155 at lock55%

Model projects ABE 1.28 – 1.52 KIL · below the strong-play bar (edge -5.7%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

K. Nisbet · ABE
Forward
G. Kiltie · KIL
Forward

Projected prop · Kevin Nisbet (ABE) 0.40 goals · 0.33 goals/game this season, × 1.20 for the projected ABE score

Line not posted yet

Aberdeen

3-2-7

Form LLLLW · 12 PF · 18 PA

1.28

Projected

Kilmarnock

2-3-8

Form DDLLW · 13 PF · 29 PA

1.52

ABE 32%Draw 25%KIL 43%

At lock: projected ABE 1.28–1.52 KIL · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 1–2

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

KIL win

55%

49% (no-vig)

Total

2.80

2.5

Gap: +7 pts of win %, +0.30 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 355 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2052 vs old model 0.2310. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

ABE 1.28–1.52 KIL · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): KIL att -0.27 / def -0.31 · ABE att -0.38 / def -0.12 · model KIL 1.5–1.3 ABE
Home field
+0.3 goals to KIL
Record
KIL 2-3-8 · ABE 3-2-7

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Kevin Nisbet
goals 4
Kevin Nisbet
goalsleaders 4

Greg Kiltie
goals 3
Greg Kiltie
goalsleaders 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ABE	KIL
Goal Difference	-6	-16
Total Goals	12	13
Assists	9	7
Goals Against	18	29

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock prediction · Nov 21, 2026

The model projects Aberdeen 1.3, Kilmarnock 1.5. Model win probability: Kilmarnock 43%, Aberdeen 32%, draw 25%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Scotland picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day