ScotlandSat 2:00 PM CTFir Park

Rangers at Motherwell

RangersMotherwell

Sat 2:00 PM CT

Lean · TotalNot a strong play

Under 3.5

-185 at lock60%

Model projects RAN 1.71 – 1.19 MOT · below the strong-play bar (edge -4.4%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

R. Naderi · RAN
Forward
L. Fadinger · MOT
Midfielder

Projected prop · Ryan Naderi (RAN) 0.49 goals · 0.50 goals/game this season, × 0.98 for the projected RAN score

Line not posted yet

Rangers

8-3-1

Form DWDWD · 21 PF · 9 PA

1.71

Projected

Motherwell

3-4-6

Form DWDLL · 15 PF · 21 PA

1.19

RAN 49%Draw 24%MOT 27%

At lock: projected RAN 1.71–1.19 MOT · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

MOT win

38%

24% (no-vig)

Total

2.90

3.5

Gap: +15 pts of win %, -0.60 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 355 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2052 vs old model 0.2310. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

RAN 1.71–1.19 MOT · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): MOT att -0.17 / def +0.05 · RAN att +0.27 / def +0.22 · model MOT 1.2–1.7 RAN
Home field
+0.3 goals to MOT
Record
MOT 3-4-6 · RAN 8-3-1

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Ryan Naderi
goals 6
Ryan Naderi
goalsleaders 6

Lukas Fadinger
goals 3
Lukas Fadinger
goalsleaders 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	RAN	MOT
Goal Difference	12	-6
Total Goals	21	15
Assists	10	8
Goals Against	9	21

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Rangers vs Motherwell prediction · Nov 21, 2026

The model projects Rangers 1.7, Motherwell 1.2. Model win probability: Motherwell 27%, Rangers 49%, draw 24%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Scotland picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day