Saudi ProFri 6:15 AM CTKing Abdullah Sport City Stadium

Al Khaleej at Al Kholood

Al KhaleejAl Kholood

Fri 6:15 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

51%

At lock KHA 1.44–1.48 KHO · 0.4 goals over 2.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Lean

Players

J. King · KHA
Forward
J. Domingues · KHO
Forward

Projected prop · Julien Domingues (KHO) 0.57 goals · 0.55 goals/game this season, × 1.04 for the projected KHO score

Line not posted yet

Al Khaleej

3-6-3

Form DLWWD · 14 PF · 19 PA

1.44

Projected

Al Kholood

3-3-5

Form DLLLL · 17 PF · 26 PA

1.48

KHA 37%Draw 25%KHO 39%

At lock: projected KHA 1.44–1.48 KHO · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 1–2

DraftKingstap to log

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

KHO win

50%

63% (no-vig)

Total

3.22

—

Gap: -13 pts of win %. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 556 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1883 vs old model 0.2351. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

KHA 1.44–1.48 KHO · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): KHO att -0.19 / def -0.31 · KHA att -0.18 / def -0.21 · model KHO 1.6–1.6 KHA
Home field
+0.3 goals to KHO
Record
KHO 3-3-5 · KHA 3-6-3

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Joshua King
goals 5
Joshua King
goalsleaders 5

Julien Domingues
goals 6
Julien Domingues
goalsleaders 6

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	KHA	KHO
Goal Difference	-5	-9
Total Goals	14	17
Assists	8	14
Goals Against	19	26

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Al Khaleej vs Al Kholood prediction · Nov 27, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Al Khaleej 1.4, Al Kholood 1.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Al Kholood 39%, Al Khaleej 37%, draw 25%.

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