Saudi ProFri 8:20 AM CTAl Ettifaq Club Stadium

Al Fayha at Al Qadsiah

Al FayhaAl Qadsiah

Fri 8:20 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

45%

At lock FAY 0.76–2.54 QAD · 0.2 goals under 3.5 · 45% is the confidence saved at lock

Lean

Players

Hugo Moura · FAY
Midfielder
T. Reijnders · QAD
Midfielder

Projected prop · Tijjani Reijnders (QAD) 0.70 goals · 0.67 goals/game this season, × 1.04 for the projected QAD score

Line not posted yet

Al Fayha

2-5-5

Form WDLLD · 16 PF · 20 PA

0.76

Projected

Al Qadsiah

9-1-2

Form WWDLW · 32 PF · 12 PA

2.54

FAY 10%Draw 15%QAD 75%

At lock: projected FAY 0.76–2.54 QAD · most likely 0–2

DraftKingstap to log

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

QAD win

85%

87% (no-vig)

Total

3.59

—

Gap: -1 pts of win %. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 556 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1883 vs old model 0.2351. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

FAY 0.76–2.54 QAD · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): QAD att +0.48 / def +0.28 · FAY att -0.28 / def -0.09 · model QAD 2.8–0.8 FAY
Home field
+0.3 goals to QAD
Record
QAD 9-1-2 · FAY 2-5-5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Hugo Moura
goals 4
Hugo Moura
goalsleaders 4

Tijjani Reijnders
goals 8
Tijjani Reijnders
goalsleaders 8

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	FAY	QAD
Goal Difference	-4	20
Total Goals	16	32
Assists	10	25
Goals Against	20	12

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Al Fayha vs Al Qadsiah prediction · Nov 27, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 45% model probability. The model projected Al Fayha 0.8, Al Qadsiah 2.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Al Qadsiah 75%, Al Fayha 10%, draw 15%.

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