Al Shabab at Abha
@At lock SHA 1.99–1.08 ABH · 0.6 goals over 2.5 · 58% is the confidence saved at lock
Y. Carrasco · SHA
MidfielderA. Gory · ABH
Forward
Projected prop · Yannick Carrasco (SHA) 0.65 goals · 0.55 goals/game this season, × 1.20 for the projected SHA score
At lock: projected SHA 1.99–1.08 ABH · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 2–1
Model vs market
Gap: -5 pts of win %. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 556 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1883 vs old model 0.2351. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.
The model
How this number was built
SHA 1.99–1.08 ABH · Low confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ABH att -0.42 / def -0.38 · SHA att +0.05 / def -0.05 · model ABH 1.1–2.2 SHA
- Home field+0.3 goals to ABH
- RecordABH 0-3-8 · SHA 3-5-3
Season leaders
- Yannick Carrascogoals 6
- Yannick Carrascogoalsleaders 6
- Alimani Gorygoals 2
- Alimani Gorygoalsleaders 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SHA | ABH | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | 5 | -12 |
| Total Goals | 20 | 7 |
| Assists | 9 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 15 | 19 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Al Shabab vs Abha prediction · Nov 26, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 58% model probability. The model projected Al Shabab 2.0, Abha 1.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Abha 20%, Al Shabab 58%, draw 21%.
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