Rio Ave at Académico de Viseu
FT
1–2
At lock: projected RAFC 0.99–1.63 ACV
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:14 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3405688779
- Winner: Académico (52%)
- Spread: ACV -0.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 2.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)0
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
RAFC 0.99–1.63 ACV · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ACV att -0.09 / def -0.04 · RAFC att -0.33 / def -0.29 · model ACV 1.8–0.9 RAFC
- Home field+0.3 goals to ACV
- RecordACV 6-2-2 · RAFC 2-1-7
- Market priorBlended 66% toward ACV -110 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RAFC | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| ACV | 0 | 2 | 2 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 38'
Goal! Académico de Viseu 0, Rio Ave 1. Miguel Patrício (Rio Ave) header from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by João Tomé with a cross.
- GOAL2H 69'
Goal! Académico de Viseu 1, Rio Ave 1. Soufiane Messeguem (Académico de Viseu) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by André Clóvis.
- GOAL2H 77'
Goal! Académico de Viseu 2, Rio Ave 1. André Clóvis (Académico de Viseu) left footed shot from the left side of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Alejandro Mestanza with a through ball.
Game leaders
- Diogo Bezerratotalshots 3
- Diogo NascimentoPass 78
- Andreas Ntoidefensiveinterventions 16
Ennio van der GouwSV 3
- André Clóvistotalshots 3
- Niklaos MichelisPass 56
- Robinhodefensiveinterventions 14
- EwertonSV 3
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| RAFC | ACV | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 12 | 8 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 1 |
| Red Cards | 1 | 0 |
| Offsides | 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks | 6 | 5 |
| Saves | 3 | 3 |
| Possession | 54.9 | 45.1 |
| SHOTS | 12 | 13 |
| ON GOAL | 5 | 5 |
| On Target % | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 448 | 348 |
| Passes | 530 | 428 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 4 | 2 |
| Crosses | 18 | 20 |
| Cross % | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Long Balls | 52 | 55 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 19 | 28 |
| Long Balls % | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 2 | 2 |
| Effective Tackles | 9 | 8 |
| Tackles | 13 | 14 |
| Tackle % | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 9 |
| Effective Clearances | 32 | 31 |
| Clearances | 32 | 31 |
At lock RAFC 0.99–1.63 ACV · 0.1 goals over 2.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitD. Bezerra · RAFC
ForwardD. Nascimento · RAFC
MidfielderA. Ntoi · RAFC
DefenderE. van der Gouw · RAFC
GoalkeeperA. Clóvis · ACV
ForwardN. Michelis · ACV
Defender
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Rio Ave vs Académico pick result · Nov 1, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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