FC Famalicao at Braga
FT
0–3
At lock: projected FCF 0.99–1.44 SCB
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:14 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3338725398
- Winner: Braga (47%)
- Spread: FCF +0.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)3
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
FCF 0.99–1.44 SCB · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): SCB att +0.10 / def +0.20 · FCF att -0.13 / def +0.20 · model SCB 1.3–0.9 FCF
- Home field+0.3 goals to SCB
- RecordSCB 4-2-4 · FCF 2-4-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward SCB -135 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FCF | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SCB | 0 | 3 | 3 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 53'
Goal! Sporting Braga 1, Famalicão 0. Ricardo Horta (Sporting Braga) left footed shot from the left side of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Adrian Barisic with a cross.
- OWN GOAL2H 67'
Own Goal by Víctor Rofino, Famalicão. Sporting Braga 2, Famalicão 0.
- GOAL2H 88'
Goal! Sporting Braga 3, Famalicão 0. Pau Víctor (Sporting Braga) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Víctor Gómez.
Game leaders
- Óscar Arandatotalshots 2
- Víctor RofinoPass 66
- Gustavo Garciadefensiveinterventions 7
- Lazar CarevicSV 2
- Mario Dorgelestotalshots 3
- Adrian Leon BarisicPass 80
- Adrian Leon Barisicdefensiveinterventions 8
- BernardoSV 1
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| FCF | SCB | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 9 | 24 |
| Yellow Cards | 3 | 5 |
| Red Cards | 1 | 0 |
| Offsides | 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks | 1 | 7 |
| Saves | 2 | 1 |
| Possession | 41.3 | 58.7 |
| SHOTS | 4 | 15 |
| ON GOAL | 1 | 4 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 314 | 451 |
| Passes | 376 | 516 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Accurate Crosses | 1 | 6 |
| Crosses | 3 | 27 |
| Cross % | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Long Balls | 50 | 43 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 25 | 21 |
| Long Balls % | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 1 | 3 |
| Effective Tackles | 6 | 9 |
| Tackles | 9 | 14 |
| Tackle % | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Interceptions | 5 | 7 |
| Effective Clearances | 24 | 6 |
| Clearances | 24 | 6 |
At lock FCF 0.99–1.44 SCB · 0.1 goals under 2.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp J. Wind anytime goal · SCB
J. Wind anytime goalÓ. Aranda · FCF
ForwardV. Rofino · FCF
DefenderG. Garcia · FCF
DefenderL. Carevic · FCF
GoalkeeperM. Dorgeles · SCB
Midfielder
Data-Driven Pick · J. Wind anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
FC Famalicao vs Braga pick result · Nov 1, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 55% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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