PortugalFri 3:15 PM CTEstádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Sporting CP at Casa Pia

Fri 3:15 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

52%

At lock SCP 2.54–0.68 CPAC · 0.7 goals over 2.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

L. Suárez · SCP
Forward
L. Ofori · CPAC
Midfielder

Sporting CP

5-3-1

Form DLWWD · 21 PF · 11 PA

2.54

Projected

Casa Pia

2-1-6

Form DWLWL · 5 PF · 17 PA

0.68

SCP 76%Draw 16%CPAC 8%

At lock: projected SCP 2.54–0.68 CPAC · most likely 2–0 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 3–0

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

CPAC win

15%

13% (no-vig)

Total

3.22

2.5

Gap: +2 pts of win %, +0.72 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 518 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1838 vs old model 0.2321. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

SCP 2.54–0.68 CPAC · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): CPAC att -0.44 / def -0.18 · SCP att +0.52 / def +0.35 · model CPAC 0.7–2.5 SCP
Home field
+0.3 goals to CPAC
Record
CPAC 2-1-6 · SCP 5-3-1

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Luis Suárez
goals 8
Luis Suárez
goalsleaders 8

Lawrence Ofori
goals 1
Lawrence Ofori
goalsleaders 1

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SCP	CPAC
Goal Difference	10	-12
Total Goals	21	5
Assists	15	4
Goals Against	11	17

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Sporting vs Casa Pia prediction · Oct 30, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projected Sporting 2.5, Casa Pia 0.7 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Casa Pia 8%, Sporting 76%, draw 16%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Portugal picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day