Vitória de Guimaraes at Gil Vicente
FT
0–0
At lock: projected VSC 1.31–1.04 GVFC
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 12:04 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3506501588
- Winner: Vitória (43%)
- Spread: GVFC +0.5 covers (57%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (59%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
VSC 1.31–1.04 GVFC · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): GVFC att -0.24 / def +0.15 · VSC att -0.19 / def +0.06 · model GVFC 1.1–0.9 VSC
- Home field+0.3 goals to GVFC
- RecordGVFC 4-3-3 · VSC 2-3-5
- Market priorBlended 66% toward VSC +145 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VSC | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| GVFC | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Game leaders
- Oumar Tourad Camaratotalshots 6
- Ahmed SidibéPass 58
- Toni Borevkovicdefensiveinterventions 14
- Lucas FurtadoSV 1
- Walace Françatotalshots 2
- BuatuPass 55
- José Silvadefensiveinterventions 14
- LucãoSV 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| VSC | GVFC | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 21 | 17 |
| Yellow Cards | 1 | 2 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks | 3 | 2 |
| Saves | 1 | 2 |
| Possession | 51.7 | 48.3 |
| SHOTS | 11 | 10 |
| ON GOAL | 2 | 1 |
| On Target % | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 362 | 332 |
| Passes | 432 | 406 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 6 | 6 |
| Crosses | 19 | 14 |
| Cross % | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Long Balls | 51 | 61 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 18 | 26 |
| Long Balls % | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Blocked Shots | 3 | 2 |
| Effective Tackles | 12 | 6 |
| Tackles | 21 | 11 |
| Tackle % | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Interceptions | 2 | 13 |
| Effective Clearances | 31 | 23 |
| Clearances | 31 | 23 |
At lock VSC 1.31–1.04 GVFC · 0.1 goals under 2.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock
HitO. Camara · VSC
MidfielderA. Sidibé · VSC
DefenderT. Borevkovic · VSC
DefenderL. Furtado · VSC
GoalkeeperW. França · GVFC
ForwardBuatu · GVFC
Defender
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Vitória vs Gil Vicente pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 57% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Portugal picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day