Santa Clara at Maritimo
FT
2–0
At lock: projected CDSC 1.45–0.98 MAR
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:14 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3523279207
- Winner: Santa Clara (48%)
- Spread: MAR +0.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
CDSC 1.45–0.98 MAR · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): MAR att -0.31 / def -0.36 · CDSC att -0.27 / def +0.18 · model MAR 0.9–1.4 CDSC
- Home field+0.3 goals to MAR
- RecordMAR 2-2-6 · CDSC 6-3-1
- Market priorBlended 66% toward CDSC +145 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CDSC | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| MAR | 0 | 0 | 0 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 36'
Goal! Marítimo 0, Santa Clara 1. Tiago Ribeiro (Santa Clara) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Guilherme Romão.
- GOAL2H 60'
Goal! Marítimo 0, Santa Clara 2. Vinícius Lopes (Santa Clara) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Emanuel Moreira with a through ball.
Game leaders
- Tiago Ribeirototalshots 3
- Pedro PachecoPass 43
- Emanuel Moreiradefensiveinterventions 14
- NenecaSV 6
- Adrián Butzketotalshots 4
- Romain CorreiaPass 54
- Romain Correiadefensiveinterventions 14
- Fran VieitesSV 3
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CDSC | MAR | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 18 | 17 |
| Yellow Cards | 3 | 3 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 4 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks | 2 | 5 |
| Saves | 6 | 3 |
| Possession | 47.6 | 52.4 |
| SHOTS | 11 | 17 |
| ON GOAL | 5 | 6 |
| On Target % | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 275 | 304 |
| Passes | 359 | 384 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 1 | 8 |
| Crosses | 10 | 22 |
| Cross % | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Long Balls | 57 | 53 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 16 | 21 |
| Long Balls % | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Blocked Shots | 2 | 1 |
| Effective Tackles | 10 | 12 |
| Tackles | 14 | 17 |
| Tackle % | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 3 |
| Effective Clearances | 25 | 19 |
| Clearances | 25 | 19 |
At lock CDSC 1.45–0.98 MAR · 0.1 goals under 2.5 · 60% is the confidence saved at lock
HitT. Ribeiro · CDSC
MidfielderP. Pacheco · CDSC
DefenderE. Moreira · CDSC
DefenderNeneca · CDSC
GoalkeeperA. Butzke · MAR
ForwardR. Correia · MAR
Defender
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Santa Clara vs Maritimo pick result · Nov 1, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 60% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Portugal picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day