Alverca at Benfica
FT
0–1
At lock: projected ALV 0.57–2.93 SLB
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 12:04 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3439391112
- Winner: Benfica (85%)
- Spread: ALV +2.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)3
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
ALV 0.57–2.93 SLB · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): SLB att +0.51 / def +0.41 · ALV att -0.19 / def -0.04 · model SLB 2.6–0.7 ALV
- Home field+0.3 goals to SLB
- RecordSLB 8-1-1 · ALV 3-2-5
- Market priorBlended 66% toward SLB -800 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALV | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SLB | 0 | 1 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 51'
Goal! Benfica 1, Alverca 0. Vangelis Pavlidis (Benfica) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the centre of the goal.
Game leaders
- Chiquinhototalshots 2
- Sergi GómezPass 36
- Nabili Touaizidefensiveinterventions 13
- Matheus MendesSV 3
- Claudio Echeverritotalshots 3
- Tomás AraújoPass 91
- Samuel Dahldefensiveinterventions 11
- Samuel SoaresSV 4
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ALV | SLB | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 15 | 11 |
| Yellow Cards | 3 | 1 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks | 5 | 8 |
| Saves | 3 | 4 |
| Possession | 34.8 | 65.2 |
| SHOTS | 8 | 13 |
| ON GOAL | 4 | 4 |
| On Target % | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 1 |
| Accurate Passes | 223 | 501 |
| Passes | 305 | 583 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Accurate Crosses | 3 | 3 |
| Crosses | 14 | 18 |
| Cross % | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Long Balls | 49 | 52 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 20 | 27 |
| Long Balls % | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 1 | 3 |
| Effective Tackles | 14 | 13 |
| Tackles | 24 | 21 |
| Tackle % | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Interceptions | 14 | 10 |
| Effective Clearances | 24 | 18 |
| Clearances | 24 | 18 |
At lock ALV 0.57–2.93 SLB · 0.00 goals under 3.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp G. Prestianni anytime goal · SLB
G. Prestianni anytime goalChiquinho · ALV
ForwardS. Gómez · ALV
DefenderN. Touaizi · ALV
ForwardMatheus Mendes · ALV
GoalkeeperC. Echeverri · SLB
Midfielder
Data-Driven Pick · G. Prestianni anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Alverca vs Benfica pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 50% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Portugal picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day