Casa Pia at Alverca
FT
1–1
At lock: projected CPAC 0.87–1.41 ALV
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:44 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3456168731
- Winner: Alverca (48%)
- Spread: CPAC +0.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (60%)
- Score error (both teams)0
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
CPAC 0.87–1.41 ALV · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ALV att -0.19 / def -0.04 · CPAC att -0.45 / def -0.16 · model ALV 1.4–0.8 CPAC
- Home field+0.3 goals to ALV
- RecordALV 3-3-5 · CPAC 2-2-7
- Market priorBlended 66% toward ALV -115 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPAC | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| ALV | 0 | 1 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 36'
Goal! Alverca 0, Casa Pia 1. Selvi Clua (Casa Pia) left footed shot from very close range to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Henrique Araújo with a cross.Goal confirmed following VAR Review.
- GOAL2H 66'
Goal! Alverca 1, Casa Pia 1. Ian Luccas (Alverca) header from very close range to the high centre of the goal. Assisted by Chiquinho with a cross following a corner.
Game leaders
- Sebastián Péreztotalshots 2
- Sebastián PérezPass 40
- David Sousadefensiveinterventions 25
- Patrick SequeiraSV 4
- André Vidigaltotalshots 3
- Yahya BojangPass 68
- Isaac Jamesdefensiveinterventions 11
- Matheus MendesSV 3
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CPAC | ALV | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 13 | 16 |
| Yellow Cards | 1 | 3 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks | 2 | 9 |
| Saves | 4 | 3 |
| Possession | 44.1 | 55.9 |
| SHOTS | 11 | 15 |
| ON GOAL | 4 | 5 |
| On Target % | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 256 | 331 |
| Passes | 349 | 424 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 6 | 5 |
| Crosses | 13 | 32 |
| Cross % | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| Long Balls | 55 | 69 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 16 | 36 |
| Long Balls % | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 3 | 4 |
| Effective Tackles | 18 | 12 |
| Tackles | 24 | 16 |
| Tackle % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Interceptions | 3 | 10 |
| Effective Clearances | 44 | 16 |
| Clearances | 44 | 16 |
At lock CPAC 0.87–1.41 ALV · 0.2 goals under 2.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp D. Camara anytime goal · ALV
D. Camara anytime goalS. Pérez · CPAC
MidfielderDavid Sousa · CPAC
DefenderP. Sequeira · CPAC
GoalkeeperA. Vidigal · ALV
ForwardY. Bojang · ALV
Defender
Data-Driven Pick · D. Camara anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Casa Pia vs Alverca pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 57% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Portugal picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day