Benfica at Estrela
FT
3–2
At lock: projected SLB 2.29–1.14 EST
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:07 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3472946350
- Winner: Benfica (63%)
- Spread: EST +1.5 covers (60%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
SLB 2.29–1.14 EST · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): EST att -0.26 / def -0.24 · SLB att +0.51 / def +0.41 · model EST 0.8–2.7 SLB
- Home field+0.3 goals to EST
- RecordEST 2-4-5 · SLB 9-1-1
- Market priorBlended 66% toward SLB -525 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SLB | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| EST | 0 | 2 | 2 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 26'
Goal! Estrela 0, Benfica 1. Gianluca Prestianni (Benfica) right footed shot from outside the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Claudio Echeverri.
- GOAL2H 48'
Goal! Estrela 1, Benfica 1. Lovro Zvonarek (Estrela) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Rafa Soares following a fast break.
- OWN GOAL2H 68'
Own Goal by Bernardo Schappo, Estrela. Estrela 1, Benfica 2.
- GOAL2H 76'
Goal! Estrela 2, Benfica 2. Leandro Antonetti (Estrela) header from very close range to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Joan Jordán with a cross following a set piece situation.
- GOAL2H 90'+4'
Goal! Estrela 2, Benfica 3. Vangelis Pavlidis (Benfica) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Andreas Schjelderup with a cross following a corner.
Game leaders
- Gianluca Prestiannitotalshots 3
- Clément LengletPass 94
- Alexander Bahdefensiveinterventions 8
- Leandro Antonettitotalshots 2
- Bernardo SchappoPass 47
- Max Scholzedefensiveinterventions 12
- Leo LinckSV 3
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SLB | EST | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 12 | 15 |
| Yellow Cards | 0 | 2 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks | 10 | 1 |
| Saves | 0 | 3 |
| Possession | 62.3 | 37.7 |
| SHOTS | 15 | 7 |
| ON GOAL | 5 | 2 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 486 | 276 |
| Passes | 561 | 339 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 6 | 3 |
| Crosses | 21 | 13 |
| Cross % | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Long Balls | 36 | 55 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 22 | 29 |
| Long Balls % | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 3 | 0 |
| Effective Tackles | 7 | 7 |
| Tackles | 15 | 12 |
| Tackle % | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 15 |
| Effective Clearances | 11 | 28 |
| Clearances | 11 | 28 |
At lock SLB 2.29–1.14 EST · 0.1 goals under 3.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp D. Lukébakio anytime goal · SLB
D. Lukébakio anytime goalG. Prestianni · SLB
ForwardC. Lenglet · SLB
DefenderA. Bah · SLB
DefenderL. Antonetti · EST
ForwardB. Schappo · EST
Defender
Data-Driven Pick · D. Lukébakio anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Benfica vs Estrela pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Portugal picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day