Arouca at FC Famalicao
FT
0–1
At lock: projected FCA 0.96–1.41 FCF
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 2:17 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1019488738
- Winner: FC Famalicao (47%)
- Spread: FCA +0.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (58%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
FCA 0.96–1.41 FCF · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): FCF att -0.13 / def +0.20 · FCA att -0.09 / def -0.01 · model FCF 1.3–0.9 FCA
- Home field+0.3 goals to FCF
- RecordFCF 3-4-4 · FCA 6-2-3
- Market priorBlended 66% toward FCF +155 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FCA | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| FCF | 0 | 1 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 90'+6'
Goal! Famalicão 1, Arouca 0. Paulo Moreira (Famalicão) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner.
Game leaders
- Näis Djouahratotalshots 3
- Javi SánchezPass 87
- Javi Sánchezdefensiveinterventions 18
- Ignacio De ArruabarrenaSV 4
- Roméo Beneytotalshots 3
- Finn van BreemenPass 92
- Finn van Breemendefensiveinterventions 7
- Lazar CarevicSV 3
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| FCA | FCF | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 15 | 8 |
| Yellow Cards | 3 | 2 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 1 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks | 2 | 9 |
| Saves | 4 | 3 |
| Possession | 47.3 | 52.7 |
| SHOTS | 7 | 14 |
| ON GOAL | 3 | 5 |
| On Target % | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 421 | 461 |
| Passes | 479 | 521 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Accurate Crosses | 3 | 3 |
| Crosses | 14 | 24 |
| Cross % | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Long Balls | 46 | 40 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 21 | 22 |
| Long Balls % | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Blocked Shots | 0 | 5 |
| Effective Tackles | 8 | 11 |
| Tackles | 14 | 18 |
| Tackle % | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 6 |
| Effective Clearances | 31 | 17 |
| Clearances | 31 | 17 |
At lock FCA 0.96–1.41 FCF · 0.1 goals under 2.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitN. Djouahra · FCA
ForwardJ. Sánchez · FCA
MidfielderI. De Arruabarrena · FCA
GoalkeeperR. Beney · FCF
ForwardF. van Breemen · FCF
DefenderL. Carevic · FCF
Goalkeeper
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Arouca vs FC Famalicao pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Portugal picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day