Académico de Viseu at C.D. Nacional
FT
0–1
At lock: projected ACV 1.39–1.00 CDN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:44 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1036266357
- Winner: Académico (46%)
- Spread: CDN +0.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
ACV 1.39–1.00 CDN · Low confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): CDN att -0.30 / def -0.09 · ACV att -0.09 / def -0.04 · model CDN 1.1–1.2 ACV
- Home field+0.3 goals to CDN
- RecordCDN 3-1-7 · ACV 6-2-3
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACV | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CDN | 0 | 1 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 86'
Goal! CD Nacional 1, Académico de Viseu 0. Matchoi Djaló (CD Nacional) header from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Pablo Ruan with a cross.
Game leaders
- André Clóvistotalshots 4
- Anthony CorreiaPass 46
- Niklaos Michelisdefensiveinterventions 20
- EwertonSV 5
- Song Min-Kyutotalshots 4
- Matheus DiasPass 39
- Zé Vitordefensiveinterventions 11
- Renato MarinSV 6
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ACV | CDN | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 9 | 8 |
| Yellow Cards | 4 | 3 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks | 4 | 6 |
| Saves | 5 | 6 |
| Possession | 48.8 | 51.2 |
| SHOTS | 11 | 19 |
| ON GOAL | 6 | 6 |
| On Target % | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 267 | 274 |
| Passes | 325 | 341 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 7 | 4 |
| Crosses | 24 | 25 |
| Cross % | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Long Balls | 36 | 75 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 16 | 38 |
| Long Balls % | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 1 | 7 |
| Effective Tackles | 11 | 10 |
| Tackles | 16 | 19 |
| Tackle % | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 8 |
| Effective Clearances | 43 | 30 |
| Clearances | 43 | 30 |
At lock ACV 1.39–1.00 CDN · 0.1 goals under 2.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
HitA. Clóvis · ACV
ForwardA. Correia · ACV
DefenderN. Michelis · ACV
DefenderEwerton · ACV
GoalkeeperS. Min-Kyu · CDN
ForwardM. Dias · CDN
Midfielder
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Académico vs Nacional pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 55% model probability — it won.
More: Portugal picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day