Braga at Rio Ave
FT
1–0
At lock: projected SCB 2.02–0.68 RAFC
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:07 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1053043976
- Winner: Braga (42%)
- Spread: RAFC +0.5 covers (58%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
SCB 2.02–0.68 RAFC · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): RAFC att -0.33 / def -0.29 · SCB att +0.10 / def +0.20 · model RAFC 0.9–1.9 SCB
- Home field+0.3 goals to RAFC
- RecordRAFC 2-1-8 · SCB 5-2-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward SCB -190 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SCB | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| RAFC | 0 | 0 | 0 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 67'
Goal! Rio Ave 0, Sporting Braga 1. Ricardo Horta (Sporting Braga) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the bottom left corner.
Game leaders
- Pau Víctortotalshots 3
- Gustaf LagerbielkePass 44
- Gustaf Lagerbielkedefensiveinterventions 7
- BernardoSV 3
- Diogo Bezerratotalshots 2
- Diogo NascimentoPass 53
- Gustavo Manchadefensiveinterventions 13
Ennio van der GouwSV 1
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SCB | RAFC | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 22 | 12 |
| Yellow Cards | 1 | 2 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks | 8 | 0 |
| Saves | 3 | 1 |
| Possession | 46.7 | 53.3 |
| SHOTS | 13 | 4 |
| ON GOAL | 2 | 3 |
| On Target % | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 1 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 297 | 363 |
| Passes | 384 | 452 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 3 | 0 |
| Crosses | 15 | 5 |
| Cross % | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Long Balls | 57 | 56 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 18 | 16 |
| Long Balls % | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Blocked Shots | 3 | 0 |
| Effective Tackles | 13 | 6 |
| Tackles | 15 | 9 |
| Tackle % | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 13 |
| Effective Clearances | 13 | 21 |
| Clearances | 13 | 21 |
At lock SCB 2.02–0.68 RAFC · 0.2 goals over 2.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp R. Horta anytime goal · SCB
R. Horta anytime goalP. Víctor · SCB
ForwardG. Lagerbielke · SCB
DefenderBernardo · SCB
GoalkeeperD. Bezerra · RAFC
ForwardD. Nascimento · RAFC
Midfielder
Data-Driven Pick · R. Horta anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Braga vs Rio Ave pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Portugal picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day