Gil Vicente at Santa Clara
FT
2–1
At lock: projected GVFC 0.85–1.27 CDSC
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:07 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1069821595
- Winner: Santa Clara (47%)
- Spread: GVFC +0.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (63%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
GVFC 0.85–1.27 CDSC · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): CDSC att -0.27 / def +0.18 · GVFC att -0.24 / def +0.15 · model CDSC 1.0–0.8 GVFC
- Home field+0.3 goals to CDSC
- RecordCDSC 6-3-2 · GVFC 5-3-3
- Market priorBlended 66% toward CDSC +145 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GVFC | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| CDSC | 1 | 0 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- OWN GOAL1H 29'
Own Goal by Antonio Espigares, Gil Vicente. Santa Clara 1, Gil Vicente 0.
- GOAL2H 52'
Goal! Santa Clara 1, Gil Vicente 1. Walace França (Gil Vicente) header from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Murilo with a cross following a corner.
- GOAL2H 81'
Goal! Santa Clara 1, Gil Vicente 2. Murilo (Gil Vicente) from a free kick with a left footed shot to the bottom right corner.
Game leaders
- Walace Françatotalshots 5
- BuatuPass 39
- Buatudefensiveinterventions 20
- Brennertotalshots 2
- Emanuel MoreiraPass 61
- Pedro Pachecodefensiveinterventions 10
- NenecaSV 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| GVFC | CDSC | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 14 | 13 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 4 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 1 |
| Offsides | 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks | 9 | 1 |
| Saves | 0 | 2 |
| Possession | 45.8 | 54.2 |
| SHOTS | 20 | 9 |
| ON GOAL | 4 | 0 |
| On Target % | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 310 | 369 |
| Passes | 375 | 453 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 6 | 3 |
| Crosses | 20 | 11 |
| Cross % | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Long Balls | 36 | 73 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 15 | 30 |
| Long Balls % | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Blocked Shots | 7 | 5 |
| Effective Tackles | 8 | 8 |
| Tackles | 14 | 12 |
| Tackle % | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 5 |
| Effective Clearances | 37 | 21 |
| Clearances | 37 | 21 |
At lock GVFC 0.85–1.27 CDSC · 0.4 goals under 2.5 · 61% is the confidence saved at lock
MissW. França · GVFC
ForwardBuatu · GVFC
DefenderBrenner · CDSC
ForwardE. Moreira · CDSC
DefenderP. Pacheco · CDSC
DefenderNeneca · CDSC
Goalkeeper
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Gil Vicente vs Santa Clara pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 61% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Portugal picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day