Moreirense at Sporting CP
FT
0–1
At lock: projected MFC 0.50–2.85 SCP
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:44 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1086599214
- Winner: Sporting (85%)
- Spread: MFC +2.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MFC 0.50–2.85 SCP · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): SCP att +0.47 / def +0.38 · MFC att -0.26 / def -0.07 · model SCP 2.6–0.7 MFC
- Home field+0.3 goals to SCP
- RecordSCP 7-3-1 · MFC 4-2-5
- Market priorBlended 66% toward SCP -750 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MFC | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SCP | 0 | 1 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 61'
Goal! Sporting Lisbon 1, Moreirense 0. Luis Suárez (Sporting Lisbon) left footed shot from the right side of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Issa Doumbia following a fast break.
Game leaders
- Manuel Mendonçatotalshots 4
- Gilberto BatistaPass 30
- Kevyndefensiveinterventions 15
- André FerreiraSV 3
- Maxi Araújototalshots 3
- Gonçalo InácioPass 99
- Sergi Altimiradefensiveinterventions 12
- KaiqueSV 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MFC | SCP | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 8 | 10 |
| Yellow Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks | 4 | 8 |
| Saves | 3 | 2 |
| Possession | 29.3 | 70.7 |
| SHOTS | 9 | 19 |
| ON GOAL | 2 | 5 |
| On Target % | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 195 | 588 |
| Passes | 261 | 654 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Accurate Crosses | 4 | 10 |
| Crosses | 19 | 25 |
| Cross % | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Long Balls | 48 | 49 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 15 | 28 |
| Long Balls % | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| Blocked Shots | 3 | 4 |
| Effective Tackles | 10 | 10 |
| Tackles | 17 | 20 |
| Tackle % | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 7 |
| Effective Clearances | 28 | 24 |
| Clearances | 28 | 24 |
At lock MFC 0.50–2.85 SCP · 0.1 goals under 3.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp J. Derry anytime goal · SCP
J. Derry anytime goalM. Mendonça · MFC
MidfielderG. Batista · MFC
DefenderKevyn · MFC
DefenderA. Ferreira · MFC
GoalkeeperM. Araújo · SCP
Midfielder
Data-Driven Pick · J. Derry anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Moreirense vs Sporting pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 55% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Portugal picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day