PortugalFinalEstádio D. Afonso Henriques

FC Porto at Vitória de Guimaraes

2–1

FC PortoVitória

Final

FC Porto

11-0-0

Form WWWWL · 27 PF · 5 PA

Final

Vitória de Guimaraes

2-3-6

Form LDWWL · 11 PF · 12 PA

FCP 42%Draw 26%VSC 32%

At lock: projected FCP 1.42–1.19 VSC

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:07 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1103376833

Called it

Most typical sim

FCP 1 – VSC 1

Final

FCP 2 – VSC 1

Winner: FC Porto (43%)
Spread: VSC +0.5 covers (57%)
Total: Under 2.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)1

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

FCP 1.42–1.19 VSC · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): VSC att -0.19 / def +0.06 · FCP att +0.33 / def +0.58 · model VSC 0.7–1.6 FCP
Home field
+0.3 goals to VSC
Record
VSC 2-3-6 · FCP 11-0-0
Market prior
Blended 66% toward FCP -210 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
FCP	1	1	2
VSC	0	1	1

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 38'
Goal! Vitoria Guimaraes 0, FC Porto 1. Borja Sainz (FC Porto) right footed shot from very close range to the top left corner. Assisted by Alberto Costa with a cross.
GOAL2H 77'
Goal! Vitoria Guimaraes 1, FC Porto 1. Alan (Vitoria Guimaraes) left footed shot from the left side of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Gustavo Silva.
GOAL2H 86'
Goal! Vitoria Guimaraes 1, FC Porto 2. Martim Fernandes (FC Porto) right footed shot from the right side of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Pepê following a fast break.

Game leaders

Pepê
totalshots 2
Jakub Kiwior
Pass 66
Jan Bednarek
defensiveinterventions 16
Diogo Costa
SV 5

Arnel Jakupovic
totalshots 5
Ahmed Sidibé
Pass 39
João Mendes
defensiveinterventions 13
Lucas Furtado
SV 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	FCP	VSC
Fouls	11	13
Yellow Cards	4	2
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	7	3
Corner Kicks	5	4
Saves	5	2
Possession	53.4	46.6
SHOTS	12	16
ON GOAL	4	6
On Target %	0.3	0.4
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	315	254
Passes	408	353
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.7
Accurate Crosses	2	3
Crosses	10	13
Cross %	0.2	0.2
Long Balls	50	57
Accurate Long Balls	19	18
Long Balls %	0.4	0.3
Blocked Shots	4	2
Effective Tackles	7	10
Tackles	12	15
Tackle %	0.6	0.7
Interceptions	8	16
Effective Clearances	28	17
Clearances	28	17

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

52%

At lock FCP 1.42–1.19 VSC · 0.1 goals over 2.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop S. Gimenez anytime goal · FCP
S. Gimenez anytime goal
Pepê · FCP
Forward
J. Kiwior · FCP
Defender
J. Bednarek · FCP
Defender
D. Costa · FCP
Goalkeeper
A. Jakupovic · VSC
Forward

Data-Driven Pick · S. Gimenez anytime goal

+155Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

FC Porto vs Vitória pick result · Nov 8, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Portugal picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day