NHLSun 8:00 PM CTT-Mobile Arena

Vancouver Canucks at Vegas Golden Knights

TV · ESPN+

CanucksGolden Knights

Sun 8:00 PM CT

Lean · TotalNot a strong play

Under 6.5

-110 at lock50%

Model projects VAN 2.38 – 4.02 VGK · edge -2.2%; totals in this league aren't strong-play markets · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

B. Boeser · VAN
Right wing
E. Pettersson · VAN
Center
M. Stone · VGK
Right wing
M. Marner · VGK
Right wing
J. Eichel · VGK
Center

Data-Driven Pick · F. Chytil Under 1.5 SOG

Strong play+100

Vancouver Canucks

3-17-1 · L7

57 PF · 95 PA

2.38

Projected

Vegas Golden Knights

13-5-3 · L1

71 PF · 57 PA

4.02

VAN 27%VGK 73%

At lock: projected VAN 2.38–4.02 VGK · most likely 2–4

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

VGK win

77%

77% (no-vig)

Total

6.25

6.5

Gap: -0 pts of win %, -0.25 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,936 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2382 vs old model 0.2430. No free archive of NHL closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Win probability now also uses team expected goals from a shot-level model on official NHL play-by-play (distance, angle, shot type, strength): Brier 0.2381 → 0.2370 over 2023-24 to 2025-26, better in each season. Totals unchanged.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: VAN vs VGK

The model

How this number was built

VAN 2.38–4.02 VGK · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals +0.45 vs -1.39 · adj. shots +0.4 vs -7.1 · model VGK 4.1–2.2 VAN
Home field
+0.2 goals to VGK
Record
VGK 13-5-3 · VAN 3-17-1
Market prior
Blended 62% toward VGK -410 / total 6.5

Full write-up of the model

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

F. Chytil Under 1.5 SOG

+10054%

Shots · DraftKings

M. Stone Under 0.5 ast
Assists · VGK
-110
55%
V. Olofsson Under 0.5 pts
Points · VGK
-110
55%
E. Pettersson Under 0.5 pts
Points · VAN
-110
55%
I. Barbashev Under 0.5 pts
Points · VGK
+100
53%
S. Theodore Under 1.5 SOG
Shots · VGK
+120
51%
J. Eichel Under 2.5 SOG
Shots · VGK
+130
51%
M. Marner Under 0.5 ast
Assists · VGK
+120
50%

Canucks vs Golden Knights prediction · Nov 15, 2026

The model projects Canucks 2.4, Golden Knights 4.0. Model win probability: Golden Knights 73%, Canucks 27%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day