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Florida Panthers at Dallas Stars

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PanthersStars

Sun 7:00 PM CT

Lean · MoneylineNot a strong play

DAL ML

-130 at lock61%

Model projects FLA 2.30 – 3.52 DAL · edge +4.9%; moneylines aren't strong-play markets · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

S. Reinhart · FLA
Center
M. Tkachuk · FLA
Left wing
M. Rantanen · DAL
Right wing

Data-Driven Pick · S. Jones Under 1.5 SOG

Strong play-110

Florida Panthers

13-7-2 · W4

73 PF · 62 PA

2.30

Projected

Dallas Stars

12-6-2 · W2

56 PF · 49 PA

3.52

FLA 31%DAL 69%

Projected FLA 2.30–3.52 DAL · most likely 2–3 · likeliest Over 5.5 score 2–4

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

DAL win

55%

54% (no-vig)

Total

6.06

5.5

Gap: +1 pts of win %, +0.56 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,936 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2382 vs old model 0.2430. No free archive of NHL closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Win probability now also uses team expected goals from a shot-level model on official NHL play-by-play (distance, angle, shot type, strength): Brier 0.2381 → 0.2370 over 2023-24 to 2025-26, better in each season. Totals unchanged.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: FLA vs DAL

The model

How this number was built

FLA 2.30–3.52 DAL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Adj. goals +0.09 vs -0.03 · adj. shots -4.0 vs -4.1 · model DAL 3.2–2.9 FLA
Home field
+0.2 goals to DAL
Record
DAL 12-6-2 · FLA 13-7-2
Market prior
Blended 77% toward DAL -130 / total 5.5

Full write-up of the model

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Data-Driven PickComputer pick

S. Jones Under 1.5 SOG

-11056%

Shots · DraftKings

M. Rantanen Under 0.5 ast
Assists · DAL
-120
56%
M. Tkachuk Under 0.5 ast
Assists · FLA
-115
56%
C. Verhaeghe Under 0.5 pts
Points · FLA
-115
56%
W. Johnston Under 2.5 SOG
Shots · DAL
-105
56%
S. Jones Under 0.5 pts
Points · FLA
-115
56%
J. Benn Under 1.5 SOG
Shots · DAL
+100
54%
T. Harley Under 0.5 pts
Points · DAL
+105
52%
S. Reinhart Under 0.5 pts
Points · FLA
+110
52%
B. Tkachuk Under 2.5 SOG
Shots · FLA
+125
51%
T. Seguin Under 1.5 SOG
Shots · DAL
+120
51%
R. Hintz Under 0.5 pts
Points · DAL
+115
51%

Panthers vs Stars prediction · Nov 15, 2026

The model projects Panthers 2.3, Stars 3.5. Model win probability: Stars 69%, Panthers 31%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NHL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day